Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained marriage between OPEC and Russia, we have decided to re-publish some key excerpts from our note "Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing  - Watch for the Big Offload" dated November 17, 2019. </li></ul>
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Longer Lasting Damage This Time Around:The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. </li></ul>
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Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained marriage between OPEC and Russia, we have decided to re-publish some key excerpts from our note "Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing  - Watch for the Big Offload" dated November 17, 2019. 

Longer Lasting Damage This Time Around:The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. 


Risks In Leveraged Lending Have Skyrocketed - Watch For The Massive Offload

Equity Bottom-Up

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No Plan B After Merger Failure:German press reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) has criticized Commerzbank (CBK.GY) in December 2019 over its new business plan, which called for a very modest 2-4% return on tangible equity and a Plan B.</li>
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Challenging Set of Results: With looming German and European GDP downgrades, and mainland China looking at a prolonged slowdown - if not a massive financial crisis of their own, Commerzbank's shares are already trading at 25% P/TBV. Between the Deutsche Bank finds during pre-merger due diligence and a weaker global economy, Commerzbank weak results seemingly are being telegraphed. </li>
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No Plan B After Merger Failure:German press reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) has criticized Commerzbank (CBK.GY) in December 2019 over its new business plan, which called for a very modest 2-4% return on tangible equity and a Plan B.

Challenging Set of Results: With looming German and European GDP downgrades, and mainland China looking at a prolonged slowdown - if not a massive financial crisis of their own, Commerzbank's shares are already trading at 25% P/TBV. Between the Deutsche Bank finds during pre-merger due diligence and a weaker global economy, Commerzbank weak results seemingly are being telegraphed. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), also called 'The World's Most Important Number', acts as a benchmark for over US$240 trillion of assets and with LIBOR scheduled to be replaced by the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) by end 2021, the stakes have rarely been higher to ensure a smooth transition.In this Insight, we take a look at the history of LIBOR, what are LIBOR and SOFR and how they differ, why is the transition needed, the progress made in the transition and who will be affected by the transition.

The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), also called 'The World's Most Important Number', acts as a benchmark for over US$240 trillion of assets and with LIBOR scheduled to be replaced by the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) by end 2021, the stakes have rarely been higher to ensure a smooth transition.In this Insight, we take a look at the history of LIBOR, what are LIBOR and SOFR and how they differ, why is the transition needed, the progress made in the transition and who will be affected by the transition.

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Weak Core Result: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY) [Deutsche] reported pre-tax loss of EUR 1.29 bn and a clean pre-tax loss of EUR 34 mn  - versus clean consensus of a pre-tax loss EUR 3 mn. The corporate, investment and private banking divisions all under-performed whilst DWS outperformed on performance fees. While Deutsche beat top line revenues by 5% (particularly FICC) and asset management results, valuation and timing differences flattered top line growth. Loss provisioning also appeared weak.</li>
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Shares Looking Vulnerable Again: DWith shares up 20% YTD and trading at 35% 2019 TBV, and Germany vulnerable to more export downgrades in 2020H1 due to China in semi-lockdown, shares are again looking exceptionally vulnerable.  </li>
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Weak Core Result: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY) [Deutsche] reported pre-tax loss of EUR 1.29 bn and a clean pre-tax loss of EUR 34 mn  - versus clean consensus of a pre-tax loss EUR 3 mn. The corporate, investment and private banking divisions all under-performed whilst DWS outperformed on performance fees. While Deutsche beat top line revenues by 5% (particularly FICC) and asset management results, valuation and timing differences flattered top line growth. Loss provisioning also appeared weak.

Shares Looking Vulnerable Again: DWith shares up 20% YTD and trading at 35% 2019 TBV, and Germany vulnerable to more export downgrades in 2020H1 due to China in semi-lockdown, shares are again looking exceptionally vulnerable.  


Deutsche Bank - Hello Darkness My Old Friend

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

Switzerland

UBS Group AG provides financial services to private, corporate and institutional clients. The Company offers investment banking, retail banking, corporate and institutional banking, as well as holistic wealth management planning and asset management services. UBS also offers securities services such as fund administration and third-party fund management.

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UBS Group AG (UBSG VX)

Risks In Leveraged Lending Have Skyrocketed - Watch For The Massive Offload

Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained...

Thomas J. Monaco

Commerzbank - Expect a Messy Quarter

No Plan B After Merger Failure:German press reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) has criticized Commerzbank (CBK.GY) in December 2019...

Thomas J. Monaco

The End of LIBOR Is Not SOFR Away

The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), also called 'The World's Most Important Number', acts as a benchmark for over US$240 trillion of assets...

Brian Freitas

Deutsche Bank - Hello Darkness My Old Friend

Weak Core Result: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY) [Deutsche] reported pre-tax loss of EUR 1.29 bn and a clean pre-tax loss of EUR 34 mn - versus clean...

Thomas J. Monaco

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term....

Vermilion Research

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