Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.</li>
<li>At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).</li>
<li>Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.</li>
</ul>


Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well.
At the moment, all banks are trading below their 52w highs – some more notably than others (median -25.82%).
Deposit flights are driven by the inverted yield curve and particularly regional banks are vulnerable to it.


Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With CPI inflation still 6%YoY and core CPI +5.5%YoY (annualised 6%MoM) in Feb'23, the Fed will be obliged to hike 25bp, and likely also reintroduce a reserve requirement for banks. </li>
<li>Unemployment at 3.6% is far below the long-accepted NAIRU of 4.5%, reflected also in average wages still rising 4.6%YoY in Feb'23. M2 declined in Dec'22-Jan'23 but needs to contract more. </li>
<li>A 50bp hike would've been warranted, but the collapse of 3 tech-related banks obliges the Fed to be a bit circumspect. The disappearance of CS can't influence the FOMC decision. </li>
</ul>


With CPI inflation still 6%YoY and core CPI +5.5%YoY (annualised 6%MoM) in Feb'23, the Fed will be obliged to hike 25bp, and likely also reintroduce a reserve requirement for banks. 
Unemployment at 3.6% is far below the long-accepted NAIRU of 4.5%, reflected also in average wages still rising 4.6%YoY in Feb'23. M2 declined in Dec'22-Jan'23 but needs to contract more. 
A 50bp hike would've been warranted, but the collapse of 3 tech-related banks obliges the Fed to be a bit circumspect. The disappearance of CS can't influence the FOMC decision. 


US: Elevated Inflation and Tight Labour Market to Force Hikes Despite Bank Turmoil

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.</li>
<li>5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.</li>
<li>Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!</li>
</ul>


Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.
5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.
Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!


Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Given the relative large size of this deal, it should have a positive impact on its share price, especially on a relative basis against its competitors. </li>
<li>The collapse of SVB Financial and uncertain investors' reactions on the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS will likely add to the global investors' negative sentiment on the financial sector. </li>
</ul>


On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4% of its market cap.
Given the relative large size of this deal, it should have a positive impact on its share price, especially on a relative basis against its competitors. 
The collapse of SVB Financial and uncertain investors' reactions on the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS will likely add to the global investors' negative sentiment on the financial sector. 


Meritz Financial Group: A Large Share Buyback Amid Global Financials Uncertainties

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the performance of bookrunners for Korean placements from 2019-2022. </li>
<li>The following dataset includes all Korean placements above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of <strong>29 deals</strong>.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are based on our historical placements tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these placements.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the performance of bookrunners for Korean placements from 2019-2022. 
The following dataset includes all Korean placements above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 29 deals.
The deals you see in this note are based on our historical placements tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these placements.


Aequitas Korea Placements Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

Switzerland

UBS Group AG provides financial services to private, corporate, and institutional clients. The Company offers investment, retail, and corporate and institutional banking, as well as holistic wealth management planning and asset management services. UBS Group also offers securities services such as fund administration and third-party fund management.

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UBS Group (UBSG SW)

Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Confidence in the US banking system has been under stress, and contagion struck Europe as well. The troubles have for now been backstopped, but is...

Steno Research

US: Elevated Inflation and Tight Labour Market to Force Hikes Despite Bank Turmoil

CPI inflation of 6%YoY & core CPI rising 6%MoM annualized leave no room for the FOMC to abjure a rate hike. The collapse of 3 techy banks will mean...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Elevated contagion risks, ongoing liquidity needs, and lack of trust likely force the Fed to pause, not end hiking rates.

Jeroen Blokland

Aequitas Korea Placements Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

In this note, we will take a look at the performance of bookrunners for Korean placements from 2019-2022, which includes all Korean placements...

Ethan Aw

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Equity Watch: Fire-Sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks

Confidence in the US banking system has been under stress, and contagion struck Europe as well. The troubles have for now been backstopped, but is...

Steno Research

US: Elevated Inflation and Tight Labour Market to Force Hikes Despite Bank Turmoil

CPI inflation of 6%YoY & core CPI rising 6%MoM annualized leave no room for the FOMC to abjure a rate hike. The collapse of 3 techy banks will mean...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Elevated contagion risks, ongoing liquidity needs, and lack of trust likely force the Fed to pause, not end hiking rates.

Jeroen Blokland

Meritz Financial Group: A Large Share Buyback Amid Global Financials Uncertainties

On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4%...

Douglas Kim

Aequitas Korea Placements Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

In this note, we will take a look at the performance of bookrunners for Korean placements from 2019-2022, which includes all Korean placements...

Ethan Aw