Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude inventories dropped by 4.6 mb, exceeding the expected 2 mb drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stocks also declined, surpassing analyst expectations.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 16/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>UBS cut its target prices on Halliburton and Schlumberger but raised it for ExxonMobil and Occidental. Jefferies lowered its target price on Chevron.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude inventories dropped by 4.6 mb, exceeding the expected 2 mb drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stocks also declined, surpassing analyst expectations.
US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 16/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
UBS cut its target prices on Halliburton and Schlumberger but raised it for ExxonMobil and Occidental. Jefferies lowered its target price on Chevron.


[ETP 2024/34] Oil Slips on Weak Economic Indicators in US & China; Nat Gas Battles Oversupply

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal</li>
<li>AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed</li>
<li>The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise</li>
</ul>


The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal
AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed
The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude inventories increased by 1.4 mb for the first time in seven weeks, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.9 mb drawdown.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 6 Bcf, its first decline since 04/Apr. However, storage levels are up 6.8% YoY and 13% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo, UBS, and BMO Capital reduced their target prices on Occidental. BMO Capital lowered its targets on Chevron and Halliburton but raised its target on Exxon Mobil.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude inventories increased by 1.4 mb for the first time in seven weeks, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.9 mb drawdown.
US natural gas inventories fell by 6 Bcf, its first decline since 04/Apr. However, storage levels are up 6.8% YoY and 13% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Wells Fargo, UBS, and BMO Capital reduced their target prices on Occidental. BMO Capital lowered its targets on Chevron and Halliburton but raised its target on Exxon Mobil.


[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Exxon Mobil’s Q2 revenue grew 12.2% YoY and net profit increased by 17.3%. Revenue missed estimates by 0.4% while net profit exceeded expectations by 6.2%. v</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil’s Q2 oil production hit a record high since the 1999 merger, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin.</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil expects full-year expenditures to total USD 28 billion, including USD 25 billion for ExxonMobil and USD 3 billion for Pioneer.</li>
</ul>


Exxon Mobil’s Q2 revenue grew 12.2% YoY and net profit increased by 17.3%. Revenue missed estimates by 0.4% while net profit exceeded expectations by 6.2%. v
Exxon Mobil’s Q2 oil production hit a record high since the 1999 merger, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin.
Exxon Mobil expects full-year expenditures to total USD 28 billion, including USD 25 billion for ExxonMobil and USD 3 billion for Pioneer.


[Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates

Switzerland

UBS Group AG provides financial services to private, corporate, and institutional clients. The Company offers investment, retail, and corporate and institutional banking, as well as holistic wealth management planning and asset management services. UBS Group also offers securities services such as fund administration and third-party fund management.

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UBS Group (UBSG SW)

[ETP 2024/34] Oil Slips on Weak Economic Indicators in US & China; Nat Gas Battles Oversupply

Despite US crude stock plunging 4.6mb, prices fell on weak economic data from the US & China. The EU reached its 90% gas storage goal early. UBS...

Mint Finance

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates

Exxon Mobil beat profit estimates in Q2 with record oil production, despite a slight revenue miss. Higher crude realisations offset lower nat-gas...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 2024/34] Oil Slips on Weak Economic Indicators in US & China; Nat Gas Battles Oversupply

Despite US crude stock plunging 4.6mb, prices fell on weak economic data from the US & China. The EU reached its 90% gas storage goal early. UBS...

Mint Finance

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2024/33] Oil Lost Gains to Demand Concerns and Unexpected Build in US Inventories

​US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates

Exxon Mobil beat profit estimates in Q2 with record oil production, despite a slight revenue miss. Higher crude realisations offset lower nat-gas...

Mint Finance

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, while natural gas inventories fell for the first time since April. Major brokerages lowered target prices...