Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

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Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar</li>
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Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers</li>
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Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar</li>
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5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€</li>
</ul>



Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar

Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers

Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar

5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€


2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our Manufacturing, Transportation, Materials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our Manufacturing, Transportation, Materials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

In last Tuesday’s Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap

In last Tuesday’s Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

USD index (DXY) is positioned for further weakness to press on and below the 91.75 September low with noted pivot resistance at 94 that acts as the cap resistance on bounce attempts.Break below the rising trendline support at 93.50 and a-b-c bounce sequence labels the top at 94.70 as a corrective peak and we are now resuming the bear cycle. If we hold 92 on multiple attempts the best case C wave target comes in at 95.50.USD shows better support in weaker EM units - TRY and RUB.USD macro stance remains to sell dollar bounce attempts in Asia but parts of Asia are nearing some extreme oversold readings (TWD, SGD and MYR). USD/KRW pressing on old macro support congestion with risk to 1,110.

USD index (DXY) is positioned for further weakness to press on and below the 91.75 September low with noted pivot resistance at 94 that acts as the cap resistance on bounce attempts.Break below the rising trendline support at 93.50 and a-b-c bounce sequence labels the top at 94.70 as a corrective peak and we are now resuming the bear cycle. If we hold 92 on multiple attempts the best case C wave target comes in at 95.50.USD shows better support in weaker EM units - TRY and RUB.USD macro stance remains to sell dollar bounce attempts in Asia but parts of Asia are nearing some extreme oversold readings (TWD, SGD and MYR). USD/KRW pressing on old macro support congestion with risk to 1,110.

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

Capital flows drive currencies and capital is beginning to quit the US. The shadow that looms over the US dollar is the whopping US$5-6 trillion...

Michael J. Howell

U.S. Equity Strategy: Remain Bullish

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment...

Vermilion Research

DXY Sell Bounces

DXY 94 resistance will act as the inflection point to sell the USD with pockets of strength in weaker EM units and oversold levels in parts of Asia.

Thomas Schroeder

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)