External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>It’s a rather tentative start to the week for markets overall. After fresh highs for the S&amp;P 500 last week, European stocks are advancing modestly (Japan and China were closed today) while bonds are mostly firmer; US 10Y yields are down 1- 2bps while European debt has shed 4-6bps across the major markets.</li><li>The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.</li><li>The NZD is at the foot of the intraday performance table, giving up some of the gains made late last week on speculation that the RBNZ would tighten rates a bit more in the coming weeks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

It’s a rather tentative start to the week for markets overall. After fresh highs for the S&amp;P 500 last week, European stocks are advancing modestly (Japan and China were closed today) while bonds are mostly firmer; US 10Y yields are down 1- 2bps while European debt has shed 4-6bps across the major markets.The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.The NZD is at the foot of the intraday performance table, giving up some of the gains made late last week on speculation that the RBNZ would tighten rates a bit more in the coming weeks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - Flat USD Looks to CPI for Direction

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The firm USD is consolidating its recent gains.</li><li>There was some drift in the overall performance of the USD (DXY) through Asian and early European trading but the index has rebounded into the start of North American trade to near yesterday’s peak in the index near 104.60.</li><li>Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The firm USD is consolidating its recent gains.There was some drift in the overall performance of the USD (DXY) through Asian and early European trading but the index has rebounded into the start of North American trade to near yesterday’s peak in the index near 104.60.Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.</li><li>Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.</li><li>March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Fiscal Front Loading will support the consumption growth outlook in 1Q24, with large spending in the final weeks of 2023 as well.</li><li>Déjà vu in respect to last year’s regional banking crisis, with commercial real estate the core problem. Spillover risk remains on the upside.</li><li>The latest Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement paves the way for a lower yields outlook with lesser Risk Premia.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fiscal Front Loading will support the consumption growth outlook in 1Q24, with large spending in the final weeks of 2023 as well.Déjà vu in respect to last year’s regional banking crisis, with commercial real estate the core problem. Spillover risk remains on the upside.The latest Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement paves the way for a lower yields outlook with lesser Risk Premia.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The bond market exhibited relatively high volatility in January. The yield on US Treasury experienced an upward trend, climbing from 3.88% at the close of 2023 to 4.18% by January 24, 2024.</li><li>However, it subsequently settled at 3.99% following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 31, 2024.</li><li>Concurrently, the DXY index displayed a similar pattern, rising to 103.617 on January 23, 2024, from 101.333 at the end of 2023. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The bond market exhibited relatively high volatility in January. The yield on US Treasury experienced an upward trend, climbing from 3.88% at the close of 2023 to 4.18% by January 24, 2024.However, it subsequently settled at 3.99% following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 31, 2024.Concurrently, the DXY index displayed a similar pattern, rising to 103.617 on January 23, 2024, from 101.333 at the end of 2023. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research January 2024

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Daily - Flat USD Looks to CPI for Direction

The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Consolidates Gains

Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that...

Scotiabank

Macro Strategy: A Mixed Bag

Fiscal Front Loading will support the consumption growth outlook in 1Q24, with large spending in the final weeks of 2023 as well.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research January 2024

The bond market exhibited relatively high volatility in January. The yield on US Treasury experienced an upward trend, climbing from 3.88% at the...

BRI Danareksa Research

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