TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Roblox initially fell 17% on earnings, but ended the week up 8%... why? Third party data is driving stock price action.</li>
<li>Reacceleration of DAUs, engagement, and bookings is beginning to play out...bullish ST.</li>
<li>LT EBITDA margins are anyone's guess right now, which makes the coming 9/9 Analyst Day an important catalyst to frame up the size and margin impact of TAM extensions.</li>
</ul>


Roblox initially fell 17% on earnings, but ended the week up 8%... why? Third party data is driving stock price action.
Reacceleration of DAUs, engagement, and bookings is beginning to play out...bullish ST.
LT EBITDA margins are anyone's guess right now, which makes the coming 9/9 Analyst Day an important catalyst to frame up the size and margin impact of TAM extensions.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Twitter has been in the news for a number of wrong reasons off late.</li><li>The total revenue for the quarter increased by 22% and the total revenue for the year by 37%, respectively, to reach $1.57 billion and $5.08 billion. mDAU increased by 1 million sequentially and by 13% year over year to 217 million, which were in line with its predictions.</li></ul>

Twitter has been in the news for a number of wrong reasons off late.The total revenue for the quarter increased by 22% and the total revenue for the year by 37%, respectively, to reach $1.57 billion and $5.08 billion. mDAU increased by 1 million sequentially and by 13% year over year to 217 million, which were in line with its predictions.

Twitter Inc.: The Data Breach & Other Major Risks

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Optically weak earnings and guidance due to FX and macro headwinds aren't as bad as it seems... Meta's ad business grew faster QoQ than Google's Search.</li>
<li>Zuckerberg downplayed the social graph as core to Meta's LT competitive advantage. AI is the future.</li>
<li>At $160, we think Meta is preposterously undervalued. 2023 revenue acceleration and margin expansion means the stock is trading 9x forward P/E ex-cash. </li>
</ul>


Optically weak earnings and guidance due to FX and macro headwinds aren't as bad as it seems... Meta's ad business grew faster QoQ than Google's Search.
Zuckerberg downplayed the social graph as core to Meta's LT competitive advantage. AI is the future.
At $160, we think Meta is preposterously undervalued. 2023 revenue acceleration and margin expansion means the stock is trading 9x forward P/E ex-cash. 


Facebook 2Q22: Network Effects Are Yesterday’s News, AI Is the Future

<ul>
<li>Snap had yet another earnings related meltdown as management has lost all credibility in forecasting its business. </li>
<li>Because co-founders Spiegel and Murphy have 99.5% voting shares, there is not an opportunity for an activist to fix the situation like Pinterest and Twitter.</li>
<li>The issues plaguing Snap are likely not hurting META as much given a broader ad base, better ROI on its ads, and a mgmt team that has already guided down.</li>
</ul>


Snap had yet another earnings related meltdown as management has lost all credibility in forecasting its business. 
Because co-founders Spiegel and Murphy have 99.5% voting shares, there is not an opportunity for an activist to fix the situation like Pinterest and Twitter.
The issues plaguing Snap are likely not hurting META as much given a broader ad base, better ROI on its ads, and a mgmt team that has already guided down.


Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Delaware Chancery Court rejected Elon Musk's excessive demand for more time to support his dubious claims against Twitter than he took to create and ram through his hostile buyout.</li>
<li>
Twitter's solid legal case against Musk improves odds the sale of the company could be court-ordered before year end.</li>
<li>If so, this is by far the best outcome for Twitter's wary bondholders.</li>
</ul>



Delaware Chancery Court rejected Elon Musk's excessive demand for more time to support his dubious claims against Twitter than he took to create and ram through his hostile buyout.

Twitter's solid legal case against Musk improves odds the sale of the company could be court-ordered before year end.
If so, this is by far the best outcome for Twitter's wary bondholders.


Finally, Hopeful News For Twitter Bondholders: Court Grants Fast-Track Trial Against Elon

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

Roblox 2Q22: 15% or 35% EBITDA Margins?

Roblox had a largely bullish quarter, with monetization and engagement metrics starting to show promised acceleration. Key will be 9/9/22 analyst...

Aaron Gabin

Twitter Inc.: The Data Breach & Other Major Risks

Twitter has been in the news for a number of wrong reasons off late. The total revenue for the quarter increased by 22% and the total revenue for...

Baptista Research

Facebook 2Q22: Network Effects Are Yesterday’s News, AI Is the Future

Macro clouds and Reels monetization headwinds will dissipate in 2023, providing an excellent entry point post earnings at $160, which by our math...

Aaron Gabin

Snap 2Q22: Why We Buy Meta

Snap caught 14 downgrades. Astonishing, but deserved for a management team that has no handle on its business. Snap still has a healthy user base...

Aaron Gabin

Finally, Hopeful News For Twitter Bondholders: Court Grants Fast-Track Trial Against Elon

Elon had demanded 2-3x more time to support his dubious claims of securities fraud against Twitter than he took to commit securities fraud by...

Vicki Bryan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)