TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Blowout (in a bad way) opex and capex guidance triggered a puke in META. Metaverse spending slowdowns completely ignored by Zuck.</li>
<li>Underlying engagement trends are suprisingly solid, as is underlying revenue growth (which was 8% organic this quarter ex-FX, IDFA, and Reels).</li>
<li>The key question is...what is the LT capital intensity for META to retain its competitive advantage through AI - related spending.</li>
</ul>


Blowout (in a bad way) opex and capex guidance triggered a puke in META. Metaverse spending slowdowns completely ignored by Zuck.
Underlying engagement trends are suprisingly solid, as is underlying revenue growth (which was 8% organic this quarter ex-FX, IDFA, and Reels).
The key question is...what is the LT capital intensity for META to retain its competitive advantage through AI - related spending.


META Platforms 3Q22: You Got to Keep ‘em Separated

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>Elon's Twitter funding "plan" to buy Twitter has been a disaster, time is running out, and it's mostly his fault. </li>
<li>Many in his equity pool raised back in May are trying to get out of the deal altogether.</li>
<li>He still has time to salvage it without selling more Tesla.</li>
</ul>


Elon's Twitter funding "plan" to buy Twitter has been a disaster, time is running out, and it's mostly his fault. 
Many in his equity pool raised back in May are trying to get out of the deal altogether.
He still has time to salvage it without selling more Tesla.


Will Elon Dump $10 Billion In Tesla This Week To Buy Twitter? Maybe Not.

<ul>
<li>
Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets—as I long have warned. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter &amp; investors are wary buying its LBO bonds needed to help fund the deal. </li>
<li>
Could Elon be thinking it's time to sell now BBB-rated Tesla bonds to raise a few extra billion dollars?</li>
</ul>



Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets—as I long have warned. 
Meanwhile, Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter &amp; investors are wary buying its LBO bonds needed to help fund the deal. 

Could Elon be thinking it's time to sell now BBB-rated Tesla bonds to raise a few extra billion dollars?


Is Elon About To Tap Tesla For Billions in Debt To Bolster Cash—And Help Him Buy Twitter?

<ul>
<li>Elon to Judge: Twitter Lies! Twitter is a fraudster! I am NOT buying Twitter! </li>
<li>Also Elon: Never mind. Carry on. Twitter: Riiiight. We'll see.</li>
<li>Elon's Bankers: WUT? WE HAVE TO SELL "CCC" LBP BONDS NO ONE WANTS TO BUY?</li>
</ul>


Elon to Judge: Twitter Lies! Twitter is a fraudster! I am NOT buying Twitter! 
Also Elon: Never mind. Carry on. Twitter: Riiiight. We'll see.
Elon's Bankers: WUT? WE HAVE TO SELL "CCC" LBP BONDS NO ONE WANTS TO BUY?


Elon V. Twitter: Elon Caved...For Sure...Maybe

<ul>
<li>Bondholders on alert as a whistleblower complaint gives Elon's case the substance he lacked as he tries break his agreement to buy Twitter</li>
<li>But this doesn't win Elon's case—he has to prove deliberate fraud, which is far from clear</li>
<li>It's much easier for Twitter to prove Elon's biggest complaint is buyers' remorse—which isn't sufficient grounds to terminate the deal.</li>
</ul>


Bondholders on alert as a whistleblower complaint gives Elon's case the substance he lacked as he tries break his agreement to buy Twitter
But this doesn't win Elon's case—he has to prove deliberate fraud, which is far from clear
It's much easier for Twitter to prove Elon's biggest complaint is buyers' remorse—which isn't sufficient grounds to terminate the deal.


Twitter V. Elon V Twitter: Elon Finally Hits A Vein

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

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Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

META Platforms 3Q22: You Got to Keep ‘em Separated

We think the current trajectory for META is unsustainable. The company will lose talent soon if the stock doesn't start to work, which requires...

Aaron Gabin

Will Elon Dump $10 Billion In Tesla This Week To Buy Twitter? Maybe Not.

Elon's Twitter funding "plan" to buy Twitter has been a disaster, time is running out, and it's all his fault. There's still time for him to...

Vicki Bryan

Is Elon About To Tap Tesla For Billions in Debt To Bolster Cash—And Help Him Buy Twitter?

Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets. Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter & investors are wary of...

Vicki Bryan

Elon V. Twitter: Elon Caved...For Sure...Maybe

Elon to Judge: Twitter Lies! Twitter is a fraudster! I'm NOT buying Twitter! Also Elon: Never mind. Carry on. Twitter: Hmm. Elon's Bankers: WUT? WE...

Vicki Bryan

Twitter V. Elon V Twitter: Elon Finally Hits A Vein

A whistleblower helps Elon's case to break his Twitter buyout, but he still has to prove deliberate fraud. Twitter can more easily prove Elon has...

Vicki Bryan

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