Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

VAC Investments

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude oil's relentless rally YTD has been largely driven by concerted and coordinated OPEC + Russia supply cuts, and a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions. Consequently, we saw Brent flirt briefly with USD 80/bbl recently, due to the likelihood of "will they / won't they?" tensions around US/North Korea talks and further Iran related sanctions. However, this week saw the first signs of OPEC and Russia signal that the oil market was overheating, with announcements of likely additional…</p>

Oil PriceCrude oil's relentless rally YTD has been largely driven by concerted and coordinated OPEC + Russia supply cuts, and a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions. Consequently, we saw Brent flirt briefly with USD 80/bbl recently, due to the likelihood of "will they / won't they?" tensions around US/North Korea talks and further Iran related sanctions. However, this week saw the first signs of OPEC and Russia signal that the oil market was overheating, with announcements of likely additional…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude continues its relentless rise, with Brent briefly hitting USD 80/bbl for the first time in 4 years this week, before ending the week at USD 78.87. WTI similarly ended the week at USD 71.53. Continued OPEC + Russia compliance on oil quotas, coupled with robust Asian demand amidst risks of prolonged Iranian export disruptions underpin the oil price rally, more than making up for steady US oil production growth. We would expect the broader upward trend to stay in the near-term, with…</p>

Oil PriceCrude continues its relentless rise, with Brent briefly hitting USD 80/bbl for the first time in 4 years this week, before ending the week at USD 78.87. WTI similarly ended the week at USD 71.53. Continued OPEC + Russia compliance on oil quotas, coupled with robust Asian demand amidst risks of prolonged Iranian export disruptions underpin the oil price rally, more than making up for steady US oil production growth. We would expect the broader upward trend to stay in the near-term, with…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.<strong> </strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Risk premia in the Crude Oil complex continued to underpin the oil price rally this week, with WTI and Brent ending the week up c.1.4% and 3%, respectively at USD 70.53/bbl and USD 76.94/bbl. Whilst the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, followed by renewed tensions in Syria - are expected to shape near-term market sentiment and keep the bullish bias, we anticipate only a modest impact to physical oil production and inventories at the moment. US sanctions on Iran could take up to…</p>

Oil PriceRisk premia in the Crude Oil complex continued to underpin the oil price rally this week, with WTI and Brent ending the week up c.1.4% and 3%, respectively at USD 70.53/bbl and USD 76.94/bbl. Whilst the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, followed by renewed tensions in Syria - are expected to shape near-term market sentiment and keep the bullish bias, we anticipate only a modest impact to physical oil production and inventories at the moment. US sanctions on Iran could take up to…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the week at USD 68.11/bbl, while Brent ended the week at USD 73.61/bbl. A near perfect storm involving - heightened geopolitical risk (Missile strikes in Syria and increased risks to the Iran Nuclear Deal); encouraging statements from the recent OPEC meeting around spare capacity and the likelihood of further production cuts by OPEC and Russia; and a…</p>

Oil PriceCrude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the week at USD 68.11/bbl, while Brent ended the week at USD 73.61/bbl. A near perfect storm involving - heightened geopolitical risk (Missile strikes in Syria and increased risks to the Iran Nuclear Deal); encouraging statements from the recent OPEC meeting around spare capacity and the likelihood of further production cuts by OPEC and Russia; and a…

United Kingdom

Tullow Oil plc explores for and produces oil and gas. The Group's assets are in Africa, Europe, South America and Asia.

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Tullow Oil PLC (TLW LN)

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 18

Oil PriceCrude oil's relentless rally YTD has been largely driven by concerted and coordinated OPEC + Russia supply cuts, and a perfect storm of...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 17

Oil PriceCrude continues its relentless rise, with Brent briefly hitting USD 80/bbl for the first time in 4 years this week, before ending the week...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 16

Oil PriceRisk premia in the Crude Oil complex continued to underpin the oil price rally this week, with WTI and Brent ending the week up c.1.4% and...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 15

Oil PriceCrude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

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