Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsumura-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8042:1" rel="noopener">Tsumura &amp; Co (4540 JP)</a> shocked everyone a year ago when they announced an immediate large price hike across the board for its kampo medicines. The stock was +35% immediately.</li>
<li>It did not fall back. Now the stock is up 60% from a year ago and earnings are too. It's still &lt;10x PER. Now we get a ¥10bn secondary offering.</li>
<li>It's 12 days of ADV but not super heavy, and there is a buyback on the back end.</li>
</ul>



Tsumura &amp; Co (4540 JP) shocked everyone a year ago when they announced an immediate large price hike across the board for its kampo medicines. The stock was +35% immediately.
It did not fall back. Now the stock is up 60% from a year ago and earnings are too. It's still &lt;10x PER. Now we get a ¥10bn secondary offering.
It's 12 days of ADV but not super heavy, and there is a buyback on the back end.


Tsumura (4540 JP) Equity Offering - Easy To Swallow, and Not Expensive

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Revenue reached JPY136.8bn, with a 20.6% YoY increase in domestic business and flat growth in China business.</li><li>Operating profit rose 69.1% YoY to JPY32.4bn, driven by revenue growth and a decline in cost ratios.</li><li>The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue but raising profit forecasts due to lower expenses and yen depreciation.</li></ul>

Revenue reached JPY136.8bn, with a 20.6% YoY increase in domestic business and flat growth in China business.Operating profit rose 69.1% YoY to JPY32.4bn, driven by revenue growth and a decline in cost ratios.The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue but raising profit forecasts due to lower expenses and yen depreciation.

Tsumura & Co (4540 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

<ul><li>Revenue reached JPY89.1bn (+18.3% YoY), with domestic business at JPY80.0bn (+20.9% YoY) and China business at JPY9.1bn (-0.8% YoY).</li><li>Operating profit increased 106.4% YoY to JPY21.1bn, with a cost of revenue ratio decline of 5.8pp to 48.5%.</li><li>Prescription Kampo formulations revenue was JPY77.1bn (+21.0% YoY), with a 21.6% drug price increase from April 2024 revision.</li></ul>

Revenue reached JPY89.1bn (+18.3% YoY), with domestic business at JPY80.0bn (+20.9% YoY) and China business at JPY9.1bn (-0.8% YoY).Operating profit increased 106.4% YoY to JPY21.1bn, with a cost of revenue ratio decline of 5.8pp to 48.5%.Prescription Kampo formulations revenue was JPY77.1bn (+21.0% YoY), with a 21.6% drug price increase from April 2024 revision.

Tsumura & Co (4540 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update

<ul><li>Revenue: JPY43.7bn (+18.0% YoY), Operating profit: JPY10.6bn (+125.8% YoY), Recurring profit: JPY14.1bn (+135.7% YoY), Net Income: JPY11.2bn (+158.1% YoY).</li><li>Domestic business revenue: JPY40.1bn (+21.7% YoY), China business revenue: JPY3.6bn (-12.1% YoY), Prescription Kampo formulations revenue: JPY38.8bn (+21.9% YoY).</li><li>Cost of revenue ratio decreased by 7.2pp to 47.7%, SG&A expense ratio decreased by 4.3pp to 28.1%, driven by higher sales.</li></ul>

Revenue: JPY43.7bn (+18.0% YoY), Operating profit: JPY10.6bn (+125.8% YoY), Recurring profit: JPY14.1bn (+135.7% YoY), Net Income: JPY11.2bn (+158.1% YoY).Domestic business revenue: JPY40.1bn (+21.7% YoY), China business revenue: JPY3.6bn (-12.1% YoY), Prescription Kampo formulations revenue: JPY38.8bn (+21.9% YoY).Cost of revenue ratio decreased by 7.2pp to 47.7%, SG&A expense ratio decreased by 4.3pp to 28.1%, driven by higher sales.

Tsumura & Co (4540 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

Japan

TSUMURA & CO. manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products including Chinese medicines.  The Company also manufactures and sells bathing products, cosmetics, and other healthcare and toiletry products.  Tsumura & Co. sells its products in Japan and overseas markets.

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Tsumura & Co (4540 JP)

Tsumura (4540 JP) Equity Offering - Easy To Swallow, and Not Expensive

Tsumura today announced a secondary offering selldown by a couple of corporate crossholders and several banks. There will be more to come later,...

Travis Lundy