Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a never-ending horizontal consolidation period. At some point this consolidation will come to an end, however the weight of the evidence is not yet telling us “this time is different.” Despite some recent encouraging and positive developments from areas such as retail (XRT), EM (EEM), and European Banks (EUFN), we remain in wait-and-see mode as the market approaches resistance. In today's report we detail why we remain hesitant to call this a bull market along with what it would take to improve our outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials: Retailers, Off-Price, Banks, Super-Regional, Construction Materials/Products, and Forest Products, Diversified.

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a never-ending horizontal consolidation period. At some point this consolidation will come to an end, however the weight of the evidence is not yet telling us “this time is different.” Despite some recent encouraging and positive developments from areas such as retail (XRT), EM (EEM), and European Banks (EUFN), we remain in wait-and-see mode as the market approaches resistance. In today's report we detail why we remain hesitant to call this a bull market along with what it would take to improve our outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials: Retailers, Off-Price, Banks, Super-Regional, Construction Materials/Products, and Forest Products, Diversified.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Is Fourth Time a Charm?

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:<ul><li>Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10</li><li>Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13</li><li>Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17</li><li>Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20</li></ul>

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.</li>
<li>The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.</li>
<li>The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.</li>
<li>Overall, the US…</li>
</ul>


The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.
The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.
The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.
Overall, the US…


US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul>
<li>There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).</li>
<li>Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.</li>
</ul>We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…


There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).
Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.
Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.
We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

United States

Truist Financial Corporation provides financial services. The Company offers wide range of services including retail, small business and commercial banking, asset management, capital markets, commercial real estate, corporate and institutional banking, insurance, mortgage, payments, and specialized lending and wealth management solutions.

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Truist Financial (TFC US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Is Fourth Time a Charm?

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a...

Vermilion Research

U. S. Equity Strategy Weekly

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card...

Vermilion Research

US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on...

Sean Maher

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again). Global reflation trade over next few...

Johannes Salim, CFA

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