Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the latest survey (September 6- 12), where most respondents focused on safe-haven assets due to concerns about the Fed's overly tight interest rate policy.</li><li>Following the Fed meeting on September 18, where it cut interest rates for the first time in four years by a larger-than-expected 50 bps and signaled continued reductions for 2024-26, the risk of a recession is now lower.</li><li>This is likely to lead to increased investment in risk assets, such as equities, and trigger sector rotations from defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) to cyclicals (energy, materials, and industrials), along with a greater focus on commodities.</li></ul>

We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the latest survey (September 6- 12), where most respondents focused on safe-haven assets due to concerns about the Fed's overly tight interest rate policy.Following the Fed meeting on September 18, where it cut interest rates for the first time in four years by a larger-than-expected 50 bps and signaled continued reductions for 2024-26, the risk of a recession is now lower.This is likely to lead to increased investment in risk assets, such as equities, and trigger sector rotations from defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) to cyclicals (energy, materials, and industrials), along with a greater focus on commodities.

Special Report: The Bigger the Fed Rate Cut, the Better for Cyclicals - SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)</li><li>The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.</li><li>This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. </li></ul>

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. 

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.</li>
<li>At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

Thailand

True Corporation PCL is an integrated telecommunications provider. The Company offers a wide range of voice, video, and data services, including dial-up and broadband Internet services, pay television, fixed-line phone, online games, and mobile phone services.

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True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)

Special Report: The Bigger the Fed Rate Cut, the Better for Cyclicals - SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

Although there are only three changes expected right now, there are multiple names just outside the border requiring small relative price changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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