Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs </li>
<li>Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand</li>
<li>We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)</li>
</ul>


Compared to depressed traffic from last year, outbound travel in July was up dramatically; strong M/M growth versus June suggests the outbound recovery still has legs 
Does China's relaxation of group travel to Japan and Korea matter? We offer context and conclude the change is helpful, but not a "game-changer" for overall travel demand
We also review July domestic traffic and preview Trip.com's Q2 results (out Sept 4th)


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

<ul>
<li>We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month</li>
<li>What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks</li>
</ul>


We see decidedly mixed signals in Chinese outbound tourism numbers from June
Meanwhile, the modest pace of the recovery in domestic air traffic continued last month
What to look for in Q2/H1 earnings results over the next several weeks


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 17th of January, we published an insight flagging an opportunity to put on a pairs trade long Naspers, short Prosus.</li>
<li>Since the start of the year, Naspers' underperformance relative to Prosus was, in our view, overdone.</li>
<li>Naspers has outperformed Prosus by 3.98% over the last 8 trading days. We suggest closing out at current levels.</li>
</ul>


On the 17th of January, we published an insight flagging an opportunity to put on a pairs trade long Naspers, short Prosus.
Since the start of the year, Naspers' underperformance relative to Prosus was, in our view, overdone.
Naspers has outperformed Prosus by 3.98% over the last 8 trading days. We suggest closing out at current levels.


Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Time to Close Out Pairs Trade as Discount Falls to 8.9% from 13.7%

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


<ul>
<li>Improved transparency from management is an important positive. Additional disclosures were included on entity IRR in the results presentation (attached, not previously disclosed). </li>
<li>Profitability target for the consolidated ecommerce businesses moved forward to H2 FY24 from H1 FY25. Significant narrowing of trading losses in H1 FY24 to $36m from $256m in H1 FY23.</li>
<li>As management 'commit to highlight value where and when possible', we think an IPO could very well be on the horizon.</li>
</ul>


Improved transparency from management is an important positive. Additional disclosures were included on entity IRR in the results presentation (attached, not previously disclosed). 
Profitability target for the consolidated ecommerce businesses moved forward to H2 FY24 from H1 FY25. Significant narrowing of trading losses in H1 FY24 to $36m from $256m in H1 FY23.
As management 'commit to highlight value where and when possible', we think an IPO could very well be on the horizon.


Naspers (NPN SJ), Prosus (PRX NA) H1 FY24 Results, Key Takeaways

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

Mango Excellent Media Co.,Ltd. offers television based services. The Company provides television shopping, online shopping, outbound shopping, and other services. Mango Excellent Media also operates new media platform operation.

Cogobuy Group provides an e-commerce platform for electronic goods in China. The Company promarily deals with computer and telecommunication hardware. Cogobuy and it's subsidiaries operate in China and distribute their products globally.

Hainan Island Construction Co Ltd.  is a property development company. The Company also operates regional malls and hotels.

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co., Ltd operates supermarkets and department stores in Guangzhou, China.  The Company sells a variety of consumer products, including apparel, food and beverages, electronics, jewelry, cosmetics, and electric appliances.  Guangzhou Friendship also leases real estate properties.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co, Ltd. (000987 CH)

Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.,Ltd. offers supply chain services. The Company purchases and distributes metal materials, ores, automobiles, chemicals, rubbers, and energy products. Wuchan Zhongda Group also conducts finance, medical, thermal power, and public utility businesses.

Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart Co., Ltd. processes gold and operates jewelry stores.  The Company also manages department stores, provides import and export trading service, produces pharmaceutical products, offers food service, and develops real estate properties.

Wangfujing Group Co., Ltd. owns and operates department stores in Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, and other cities in China.  The Company also develops residential real estate.

Expedia Group, Inc. provides branded online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The Company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels, and car rental companies.

Zomato Limited is an online restaurant guide and food ordering platform. The Company offers platform connects customers, restaurant partners and delivery partners to search and discover restaurants, read and write customer generated reviews, order food delivery, book a table, and make payments while dining-out at restaurants. Zomato serves customers worldwide.

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

Wayfair Inc. retails household goods online. The Company offers bedroom, living room, kitchen and dining, home entertainment, home office, game room and bar, patio, hallway and entryway, and bathroom furniture. Wayfair offers products and services in the United States.

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

Ocado Group PLC distributes a wide range of retail consumer products.  The Company provides home delivery of a wide range of products including food and drink, toiletries and baby, household, pet care, and holiday products.

Momo.com Inc is an e-commerce services company. The Company offers TV shopping and Internet shopping services, including beauty products, clothing, leather goods and food shops.

TripAdvisor Inc. is an online travel research company. The Company's travel research platform aggregates reviews and opinions of members about destinations, accommodations (including hotels, bed and breakfasts ("B&Bs"), specialty lodging and vacation rentals), restaurants and activities throughout the world.

Webjet Limited provides branded online travel services for travelers.  The Company offers one-stop travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing, and availability information for airlines hotels, and major car rental companies.

ASKUL Corporation sells office equipment products to medium and small sized business offices via the Internet and facsimiles.  The Company provides next day delivery services throughout Japan.

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | July Outbound Firm | Group Tour Impact | Trip.com Q2 (August 2023)

The recovery in outbound Chinese tourism remained strong in July. In this insight we also look at relaxation of Chinese group travel to Japan and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound: Mixed Signals | Domestic: Steady | (July 2023)

We see mixed signals in June outbound travel activity, and the recovery in domestic activity continued at its modest pace. For value investors,...

Tracking Traffic

Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Time to Close Out Pairs Trade as Discount Falls to 8.9% from 13.7%

To those that missed the NPN/PRX pairs trade update, Naspers has outperformed Prosus by 4.1% during the last 9 trading days. We suggest closing out...

DMA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Naspers (NPN SJ), Prosus (PRX NA) H1 FY24 Results, Key Takeaways

Management intend to make PayU India a listable business by the second half of next year. Insight includes important takeaways from the results...

DMA

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