Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We compare the performance of the top-4 global online travel agents (OTA) from the recently concluded 2023 result</li>
<li>All the OTAs recorded strong 2023 and 4Q23, but the forward outlook indicates growth rate is slowing in North America and Europe while Asia is picking up speed  </li>
<li>Trip.com is indeed comparatively most attractive among the big-4 global OTAs; our fellow Smartkarma Insight provider’s conviction is justified</li>
</ul>


We compare the performance of the top-4 global online travel agents (OTA) from the recently concluded 2023 result
All the OTAs recorded strong 2023 and 4Q23, but the forward outlook indicates growth rate is slowing in North America and Europe while Asia is picking up speed  
Trip.com is indeed comparatively most attractive among the big-4 global OTAs; our fellow Smartkarma Insight provider’s conviction is justified


Comparing Performance of Online Travel Agents, Trip.com Is Indeed Attractive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hygon Information Technology C / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.</li>
<li>With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.
The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.
With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext and STAR50 indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23.</li>
<li>The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery after the lift of the lockdown at the end of 2022.</li>
<li>The stock price is close to our last price target - Downgrade to Hold.</li>
</ul>


The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23.
The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery after the lift of the lockdown at the end of 2022.
The stock price is close to our last price target - Downgrade to Hold.


Trip.com (9961 HK, TCOM US): 4Q23, Revenue Up by 105%, But Reached Our Last Price Target

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For this year’s Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, the overall travel industry saw solid YoY growth in both tourist volume and income, on both a relatively low base and a robust recovery of long-haul travel.</li><li>Consumption segmentation trend sustained in travel industry as an increasing number of consumers are willing to spend more for quality services and better experiences.</li><li>Driven by diversified offline activities and accelerated online penetration propelled by escalating industry competition, local consumer services saw solid GTV growth during the holiday, which we think is likely to sustain throughout 2024. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For this year’s Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, the overall travel industry saw solid YoY growth in both tourist volume and income, on both a relatively low base and a robust recovery of long-haul travel.Consumption segmentation trend sustained in travel industry as an increasing number of consumers are willing to spend more for quality services and better experiences.Driven by diversified offline activities and accelerated online penetration propelled by escalating industry competition, local consumer services saw solid GTV growth during the holiday, which we think is likely to sustain throughout 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - Solid travel consumption recovery during CNY

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 1 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$7.74bn (US$988m). There is nearly 14x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> does not appear to be very high, while positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> is very high with a couple of deletions coming up.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) will replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 1 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$7.74bn (US$988m). There is nearly 14x ADV to buy in Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK). 
Positioning in Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) does not appear to be very high, while positioning in GDS Holdings (9698 HK) is very high with a couple of deletions coming up.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. operates Chinese cuisine restaurant brand focusing on hot pot cuisine. The Company provides hot pots, soup bases, dipping sauces, drinks, prepared food, and other products. Haidilao International Holding opens restaurants in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd invests in and manages theme parks in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides travel agency service.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A) (000069 CH)

Songcheng Performance Development Co., LTD invests, develops and operates theme parks and tourism cultural performing arts. The Company's major projects include the Sungcheng theme park and the cultural performing arts musical "The Romance of the Song Dynasty".

Songcheng Performance Development (300144 CH)

Giant Network Group Co., Ltd. develops online games. The Company mainly develops, operates, and sells computer terminal network game and mobile terminal network game products. Giant Network Group provides services in China.

Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels Co.,Ltd. owns and operates hotels.  The Company also provides catering, business, entertainment, and other services. Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels conducts its business in China.

Shanghai Jinjiang Internationa (600754 CH)

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. operates a tourism business.  The Company also invests in hotel and restaurant management, as well as provides advertising and exhibition center management services.

China CYTS Tours Holding Co., Ltd. provides travel information and arrangement services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures medical instrument, provides system integration services for the insurance industry, and develops real estate.

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. operates a fleet of passenger cruise ships. The Company offers an array of cruise itineraries as well as theme cruises, while markets its services through various distribution channels including retail and travel agents, consumer direct, international sales, as well as incentive sales. Norwegian Cruise extends its services worldwide.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Indian Hotels Company Limited operates The Taj Group of hotels.  The Company owns or maintains long term leases/licenses for hotels in India, in addition to International hotels.  The Group's hotels are divided into three groups: Luxury, Business, and, Leisure.

Trip.com Group Limited provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services. Trip.com Group provides services worldwide.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Comparing Performance of Online Travel Agents, Trip.com Is Indeed Attractive

Top global online travel agents had strong 2023 results, with Trip.com showing the most attractive performance and growth in Asia while the growth...

Mohshin Aziz

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Trip.com (9961 HK, TCOM US): 4Q23, Revenue Up by 105%, But Reached Our Last Price Target

The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23. The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery...

Ming Lu

Internet - Solid travel consumption recovery during CNY

Consumption segmentation trend sustained in travel industry as an increasing number of consumers are willing to spend more for quality services and...

CMB International

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

Tongcheng Travel replaces GDS Holdings in the HSTECH at the close on 1 March. GDS is also a delete from a global index on 29 Feb, Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Comparing Performance of Online Travel Agents, Trip.com Is Indeed Attractive

​Top global online travel agents had strong 2023 results, with Trip.com showing the most attractive performance and growth in Asia while the growth...

Mohshin Aziz

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Trip.com (9961 HK, TCOM US): 4Q23, Revenue Up by 105%, But Reached Our Last Price Target

The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23. The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery...

Ming Lu

Internet - Solid travel consumption recovery during CNY

Consumption segmentation trend sustained in travel industry as an increasing number of consumers are willing to spend more for quality services and...

CMB International

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

Tongcheng Travel replaces GDS Holdings in the HSTECH at the close on 1 March. GDS is also a delete from a global index on 29 Feb, Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

Top global online travel agents had strong 2023 results, with Trip.com showing the most attractive performance and growth in Asia while the growth...