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<ul><li>Hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers crowded tourist hotspots across the country over the week-long Labor Day holiday</li><li>Travelers made 274 million domestic trips during the holiday, up 70.83% from last year, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism</li><li>Revenue from domestic tourism reached 148 billion yuan ($21 billion), an increase of 128.9% from the same period last year</li></ul>

Hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers crowded tourist hotspots across the country over the week-long Labor Day holidayTravelers made 274 million domestic trips during the holiday, up 70.83% from last year, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and TourismRevenue from domestic tourism reached 148 billion yuan ($21 billion), an increase of 128.9% from the same period last year

Hardly Anybody in China Stayed Home for the Holidays

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>'s 1Q23 result demonstrated a significant YoY and QoQ reduction in losses. At Rmb2.9bn, this is the smallest losses in last six quarters.  </li>
<li>We witnessed a solid spike in overall yield and sharp margin recovery in the quarter. There is also encouraging performance in operating cash flow which turned around YoY to positive.</li>
<li>Its associate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> has seen Mar capacity returned to 50% of pre-pandemic level with over 90% load. More resumption of international flights will drive 2H23.</li>
</ul>



Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)'s 1Q23 result demonstrated a significant YoY and QoQ reduction in losses. At Rmb2.9bn, this is the smallest losses in last six quarters.  
We witnessed a solid spike in overall yield and sharp margin recovery in the quarter. There is also encouraging performance in operating cash flow which turned around YoY to positive.
Its associate Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) has seen Mar capacity returned to 50% of pre-pandemic level with over 90% load. More resumption of international flights will drive 2H23.


Air China (753 HK): Demonstrating Obvious Strengths

<ul><li>Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showed</li><li>Many of the bookings were for destinations in the Yangtze River Delta region, Chongqing municipality, Chengdu and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cluster</li><li>The rebound in travel comes amid a broader recovery in tourism, with Qunar saying that tickets tourist attractions in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Xi’an have been selling fast.</li></ul>

Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showedMany of the bookings were for destinations in the Yangtze River Delta region, Chongqing municipality, Chengdu and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei clusterThe rebound in travel comes amid a broader recovery in tourism, with Qunar saying that tickets tourist attractions in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Xi’an have been selling fast.

Labor Day Holiday Travel Demand Tops Pre-Pandemic Levels

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shangri-la-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19690:1" rel="noopener">Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)</a>'s good share price performance YTD, it has still not yet fully reflected the strengths of and benefits from China's re-opening. More upside to come.</li>
<li>Occupancy for Hong Kong and mainland China has surged 30-45pp YoY in Mar, and with China's RevPAR for FY22 is down 56.5% from peak, we see massive rebound in profitability.</li>
<li>Share of China's EBITDA was US$258m in FY22, from US$465m in FY16-19, suggests good room for recovery. It is cheap on ~70% discount to revalued NAV, vs. 37% in FY18.</li>
</ul>


Despite Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)'s good share price performance YTD, it has still not yet fully reflected the strengths of and benefits from China's re-opening. More upside to come.
Occupancy for Hong Kong and mainland China has surged 30-45pp YoY in Mar, and with China's RevPAR for FY22 is down 56.5% from peak, we see massive rebound in profitability.
Share of China's EBITDA was US$258m in FY22, from US$465m in FY16-19, suggests good room for recovery. It is cheap on ~70% discount to revalued NAV, vs. 37% in FY18.


Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Not yet Fully Reflected China's Comeback

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.</li>
<li>Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.
Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

China

Trip.com Group Limited provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services. Trip.com Group provides services worldwide.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Hardly Anybody in China Stayed Home for the Holidays

Hundreds of millions of Chinese travelers crowded tourist hotspots across the country over the week-long Labor Day holiday

Caixin Global

Air China (753 HK): Demonstrating Obvious Strengths

Good traffic rebound, solid overall yield and sharp margin recovery have underpinned 1Q23 loss reduction. Resumption of more regional and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Labor Day Holiday Travel Demand Tops Pre-Pandemic Levels

Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showed

Caixin Global

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Not yet Fully Reflected China's Comeback

Shangri-la Asia is an excellent play on recovery of China, where 55% of rooms are located. Its overseas assets will gain from surge in outbound...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

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