Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Foreign funds outflow to China may continue with YTD flow into JCI still stood at net inflow of US$3,135mn as of October 4, 2024.</li><li>Potential impact from China stimulus on commodities demand remains to be seen, but fund flow from hedge funds still has room to increase.</li><li>JCI consensus est. saw a cut to 4.5%, though it still stands out among peers; we believe better entry will emerge when outflow subsides.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Foreign funds outflow to China may continue with YTD flow into JCI still stood at net inflow of US$3,135mn as of October 4, 2024.Potential impact from China stimulus on commodities demand remains to be seen, but fund flow from hedge funds still has room to increase.JCI consensus est. saw a cut to 4.5%, though it still stands out among peers; we believe better entry will emerge when outflow subsides.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Headwind from Outflows May Persist

<ul><li>China’s latest stimulus offers hope for improving productivity, but we see challenges as property prices have continued to fall in recent months.</li><li>NPI prices could face ST weakness from increased domestic output but may stand to benefit the most if China’s stimulus works.</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s latest stimulus offers hope for improving productivity, but we see challenges as property prices have continued to fall in recent months.NPI prices could face ST weakness from increased domestic output but may stand to benefit the most if China’s stimulus works.We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Hope from China’s Latest Stimulus, Albeit More Is Needed (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>Tin price strengthened to US$32k/t in Aug24, as inventory (SHFE and LME) and Indonesian exports fell -23% mom.</li><li>Nickel ore supply remained tight, which boosted the NPI price in Aug24. However, the LME price fell on weaker fundamentals.</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tin price strengthened to US$32k/t in Aug24, as inventory (SHFE and LME) and Indonesian exports fell -23% mom.Nickel ore supply remained tight, which boosted the NPI price in Aug24. However, the LME price fell on weaker fundamentals.We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Aug24 Metal Sector Update: Supports for Tin Price

<ul><li>Tin price weakened in Jul24 despite a tight supply in China and declining inventory levels globally.</li><li>Nickel prices stabilized in Jul24. Yet, we remain cautious of further decline from weak seasonal demand.</li><li>We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their better earnings visibility</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tin price weakened in Jul24 despite a tight supply in China and declining inventory levels globally.Nickel prices stabilized in Jul24. Yet, we remain cautious of further decline from weak seasonal demand.We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their better earnings visibilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Jul24 Update: Weaker Nickel and Tin Price, Despite Tight Ore Supply (OVERWEIGHT)

Indonesia

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk is a nickel resource and mining company. The Company offers laterite nickel ore, which consists of limonite and saprolite ore, as well as operates nickel smelters in Obi Island that process saprolite ore to produce ferronickel, which can be further processed into stainless steel. Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk serves customers in Indonesia.

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Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT (NCKL IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in October. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Equity Strategy: Headwind from Outflows May Persist

JCI consensus est. saw a cut to 4.5%, though it still stands out among peers; we believe better entry will emerge when outflow subsides.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Hope from China’s Latest Stimulus, Albeit More Is Needed (OVERWEIGHT)

China’s latest stimulus offers hope for improving productivity, but we see challenges as property prices have continued to fall in recent months.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Aug24 Metal Sector Update: Supports for Tin Price

Tin price strengthened to US$32k/t in Aug24, as inventory (SHFE and LME) and Indonesian exports fell -23% mom. Nickel ore supply remained tight,...

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Jul24 Update: Weaker Nickel and Tin Price, Despite Tight Ore Supply (OVERWEIGHT)

Tin price weakened in Jul24 despite a tight supply in China and declining inventory levels globally. Nickel prices stabilized in Jul24.

BRI Danareksa Research

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