Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TRS reported first quarter results confirming a turnaround in the packaging segment could be underway</li>
<li>Packaging is TRS’s largest business segment and had undergone a restructuring last year. The increase in sales has done little to impress investors</li>
<li>TRS reported first quarter sales of $227.1 million compared to our estimate of $216.2 million. The biggest driver for the outperformance was the packaging segment</li>
</ul>


TRS reported first quarter results confirming a turnaround in the packaging segment could be underway
Packaging is TRS’s largest business segment and had undergone a restructuring last year. The increase in sales has done little to impress investors
TRS reported first quarter sales of $227.1 million compared to our estimate of $216.2 million. The biggest driver for the outperformance was the packaging segment


<ul>
<li>The fourth quarter results from TRS were not up to our expectations after a recovery in packaging was subdued by an unexpected significant decline in the specialty business</li>
<li>The specialty business has been a source of sales growth for the past nearly three years without any sign of slowing down until Q4. </li>
<li>TRS reported fourth quarter sales of $209.6 million compared to our forecast of $247.4 million. The biggest delta was from specialty where sales missed our estimate by $26 million</li>
</ul>


The fourth quarter results from TRS were not up to our expectations after a recovery in packaging was subdued by an unexpected significant decline in the specialty business
The specialty business has been a source of sales growth for the past nearly three years without any sign of slowing down until Q4. 
TRS reported fourth quarter sales of $209.6 million compared to our forecast of $247.4 million. The biggest delta was from specialty where sales missed our estimate by $26 million


<ul>
<li>The industry headwinds TriMas Corp. (TRS) experienced in 2023 are showing signs of abating and should result in TRS growing earnings in 2024</li>
<li>TRS spent 2023 restructuring its packaging business after customers began to change their ordering habits in 2022.</li>
<li>Recent quarterly results from Proctor &amp; Gamble (PG) and preliminary sales from Inter Parfums (IPAR) shed positive light on unit volume growth in consumer packaging</li>
</ul>


The industry headwinds TriMas Corp. (TRS) experienced in 2023 are showing signs of abating and should result in TRS growing earnings in 2024
TRS spent 2023 restructuring its packaging business after customers began to change their ordering habits in 2022.
Recent quarterly results from Proctor &amp; Gamble (PG) and preliminary sales from Inter Parfums (IPAR) shed positive light on unit volume growth in consumer packaging


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orora-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16042:1" rel="noopener">Orora Ltd (ORA AU)</a> disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. </li>
<li>The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, Orora Ltd (ORA AU) disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. 
The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.


Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

<ul>
<li>TRS reported third quarter results where the packaging business continues to stabilize from inventory destocking while the aerospace segment continues to grow as fast as possible</li>
<li>The packaging business has gone through restructuring that should lead to higher profit margin as customers begin to increase their order activity</li>
<li>Improved supply chains are aiding the sales growth in aerospace. The growth in aerospace should help push cash flow higher and offset the softness in packaging</li>
</ul>


TRS reported third quarter results where the packaging business continues to stabilize from inventory destocking while the aerospace segment continues to grow as fast as possible
The packaging business has gone through restructuring that should lead to higher profit margin as customers begin to increase their order activity
Improved supply chains are aiding the sales growth in aerospace. The growth in aerospace should help push cash flow higher and offset the softness in packaging


United States

TriMas Corporation is a diversified manufacturer of proprietary products. The Company manufactures trailer products, recreational accessories, packaging systems, energy products and industrial specialty products for the commercial, manufacturing, and consumer markets.

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TRS: Scaled for Free Cash Flow

The packaging business continues to operate at trough levels while recent restructurings have helped scale the business. We view 2024 earnings...

BWS Financial Inc

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