Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a> is a high probability add and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20776:1" rel="noopener">UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)</a> is a high probability delete at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> rebalance in March.</li>
<li>There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> at the rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will enter the running once added to the F&amp;O segment of the market.</li>
</ul>



Shriram Finance (SHFL IN) is a high probability add and UPL Ltd (UPLL IN) is a high probability delete at the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) rebalance in March.
There is a lower probability of Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) or Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) replacing Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) at the rebalance.

Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN), Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) and Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will enter the running once added to the F&amp;O segment of the market.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categories</li><li>Despite a promising start to the festive season, most categories (excluding jewellery and travel) seem to have hit the snooze button</li><li>Several factors contribute to this, including (1) the normalisation of ticket sizes and purchase frequencies, (2) weak footfalls (on a per sq foot basis), and (3) a trend towards downtrading</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categoriesDespite a promising start to the festive season, most categories (excluding jewellery and travel) seem to have hit the snooze buttonSeveral factors contribute to this, including (1) the normalisation of ticket sizes and purchase frequencies, (2) weak footfalls (on a per sq foot basis), and (3) a trend towards downtradingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Festive temperature check: Festive mood sombre

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Shift in Festive Season Played Spoil Sport: Most Retail companies (Ex. Trent) displayed a slowdown in topline growth on account of a shift in the festive season in Q3FY24.</li><li>Premium vs. Value: While the premium segment remains strong, the value segment (apparel) continues to remain under pressure.</li><li>However, the Relaxo under our coverage has shown sustained signs of recovery in the rural space. Going forward, volume growth is expected to pick up in rural regions.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shift in Festive Season Played Spoil Sport: Most Retail companies (Ex. Trent) displayed a slowdown in topline growth on account of a shift in the festive season in Q3FY24.Premium vs. Value: While the premium segment remains strong, the value segment (apparel) continues to remain under pressure.However, the Relaxo under our coverage has shown sustained signs of recovery in the rural space. Going forward, volume growth is expected to pick up in rural regions.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

Shoppers Stop Ltd. operates a chain of retail shops.  The Company retails men's, women's, and children's clothing; cosmetics and skin and hair care products;  home appliances; housewares; linens; luggage; jewelry; and accessories.

V-Mart Retail Limited owns, operates, and franchises a chain of family lifestyle stores in India. The Company operates medium sized hypermarket format retail stores that sell clothes, accessories, and footwear for men, women, and kids; cosmetics, luggage, toys, and games; and food, non-food, and staple items.

V2 Retail Limited owns and operates retail stores.  The Company sells readymade apparel and household merchandise and other consumer goods such as footwear, toys, watches, toiletries, grocery items, sports items, crockery, gifts and novelties.

Zomato Limited is an online restaurant guide and food ordering platform. The Company offers platform connects customers, restaurant partners and delivery partners to search and discover restaurants, read and write customer generated reviews, order food delivery, book a table, and make payments while dining-out at restaurants. Zomato serves customers worldwide.

Infibeam Avenues Limited operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company focuses on e-retail business including home and lifestyle products, books, automobile accessories, electronics, watches, health equipment, jewelry, footwear, apparel, baby products, movies, music, posters, magazines, toys, and gifts. Infibeam Avenues serves customers in India.

Thanga Mayil Jewellery Ltd. designs and manufactures jewels. The Company distributes and sells gold and silver necklaces, bangles, earrings, rings, chains, and anklets, as well as vessels, sculptures, tumblers, and other gifts. Thanga Mayil Jewellery serves customers worldwide.

PC Jeweller Ltd. manufacture, retails, and wholesale jewelry.  The Company sells jewelry through its showrooms and over the Internet.  PC Jeweller offers a wide range of products including gold jewellery, diamond jewellery and other jewellery including silver articles, with a focus on diamond jewellery and jewellery for weddings.

Shankara Building Products Limited retails home improvement and building products. The Company offers steel pipes and tubes, roofing sheets, hollow blocks, primers, tiles, plywood, kitchen sinks, and welding accessories. Shankara Building Products markets its products in India.

Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN)

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Dollar General Corporation operates a chain of discount retail stores located primarily in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The Company offer a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates a discount variety store chain in the United States. The Company sells an assortment of everyday general merchandise at the $1.00 price point.

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

Naspers Limited operates in the technology industry. The Company invests in global internet companies across the world.

Marks & Spencer Group PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail of clothing, food and home products.

Next Plc conducts retailing, home shopping, and customer services management operations.  The Company's retail stores sell ladies wear, mens wear, childrens wear, and housewares.

Falabella S.A. provides digital and physical retail space in Latin America. The Company runs different formats such as department stores, home improvement, supermarkets, regional shopping centers and power centers, and provide financial services. Falabella operates in 7 countries.

Canadian Tire Corporation Limited is a family of businesses that includes a retail segment, a financial services division and CT REIT. The Company's retail business provides Canadians with products for life in Canada across its living, playing, fixing, automotive and seasonal categories. Canadian Tire Corporation's  retail products include casual, industrial and active wear.

Trent Limited operates a chain of retail stores that sell fashion apparel, cosmetics, perfumery products and toiletry items. The Company sells apparel for men, women and children. Trent sells its cosmetics products under the "Westside" and "Trent" brand names.

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Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

There will be one change for the NIFTY in March, there could be two, with three changes a much lower possibility. Impact will be at least 3x ADV...

Brian Freitas

Festive temperature check: Festive mood sombre

We recently interacted with numerous store managers and companies to assess the festive performance and demand in discretionary categories

HDFC Securities

Top Sector Ideas - Retail Q2FY24

Shift in Festive Season Played Spoil Sport: Most Retail companies (Ex. Trent) displayed a slowdown in topline growth on account of a shift in the...

Axis Direct

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

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