Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 178, based on (1) increase in crude price realisation and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisation</li><li>Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at INR 423/259/152bn, below our estimates, owing to higher other expenses, depreciation and interest cost, partially offset by higher-than-expected other income</li><li>Crude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q1 print</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 178, based on (1) increase in crude price realisation and (2) improvement in domestic gas price realisationQ1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT stood at INR 423/259/152bn, below our estimates, owing to higher other expenses, depreciation and interest cost, partially offset by higher-than-expected other incomeCrude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q1 printContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Trent, Phoenix Mills, Fine Organic Industries

<ul><li>Recovery trends across discretionary categories are healthy: Our discretionary universe is expected to nearly double sales YoY in Q1FY23 as the companies get their first pandemic-free quarter (3-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 16/11% resp)</li><li>F&amp;G, jewellery, paints, apparel, and footwear are expected to clock 19%, 25%, 15%, 8%, and 2% (3-year CAGRs)</li><li>Ticket sizes in retail, though normalising, remain elevated vs pre-COVID levels.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Recovery trends across discretionary categories are healthy: Our discretionary universe is expected to nearly double sales YoY in Q1FY23 as the companies get their first pandemic-free quarter (3-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 16/11% resp)F&amp;G, jewellery, paints, apparel, and footwear are expected to clock 19%, 25%, 15%, 8%, and 2% (3-year CAGRs)Ticket sizes in retail, though normalising, remain elevated vs pre-COVID levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary -  Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Despite the adverse impact of COVID-19 over the last two years, Trent’s standalone revenue/PAT reported an encouraging CAGR of 11%/27% over FY20 to reach INR39b/INR2.5b, respectively, which was by far the best among peers.</li><li>However, due to the increased losses in its subsidiary (Booker India), Trent’s consolidated PAT (post-minority interest) contracted to INR346m in FY22 from INR1.0b in FY20.</li><li>Consolidated EBITDA (Pre IND-AS 116) posted a 7% CAGR to INR2.3b over FY20-22.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Despite the adverse impact of COVID-19 over the last two years, Trent’s standalone revenue/PAT reported an encouraging CAGR of 11%/27% over FY20 to reach INR39b/INR2.5b, respectively, which was by far the best among peers.However, due to the increased losses in its subsidiary (Booker India), Trent’s consolidated PAT (post-minority interest) contracted to INR346m in FY22 from INR1.0b in FY20.Consolidated EBITDA (Pre IND-AS 116) posted a 7% CAGR to INR2.3b over FY20-22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. </li>
<li>There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. 
There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. 
These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.


S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

India

Trent Limited operates a chain of retail stores that sell fashion apparel, cosmetics, perfumery products and toiletry items. The Company sells apparel for men, women and children. Trent sells its cosmetics products under the "Westside" and "Trent" brand names.

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Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Trent, Phoenix Mills, Fine Organic Industries

Crude oil and gas production were broadly in line, but total crude oil sales, including JV share, came below estimates. Trent: Trent reported a...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary - Margin Recovery to Lag that in Topline

Our discretionary universe is expected to nearly double sales YoY in Q1FY23 as the companies get their first pandemic-free quarter (3-year revenue...

HDFC Securities

Trent - Pursuing Aggressive Growth

Despite the adverse impact of COVID-19 over the last two years, Trent’s standalone revenue/PAT reported an encouraging CAGR of 11%/27% over FY20 to...

Motilal Oswal

S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

S&P BSE Index changes for June 2022 were announced last week. No changes for SENSEX. 7 Adds/Deletes for BSE 100 including some negative and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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