Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> 's share price has enjoyed a handsome recovery in the past year and the gutsy bottom picker traders have made around 136% since May 2020. Has the recovery trade been priced in? If not, how much upside is left? Or it is all just a euphoria? </p>
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<p>A channel check with flight processing software companies reveals that the recovery in the number of air travel passengers is real. There is of course a risk that there will be delayed recovery due to the emergence of the new variant or slower-than-expected vaccination exercise in the major part of the world.</p>
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<p>Apart from that, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> looks like a buy to me especially when it has a decent amount of cash on the balance sheet. </p>

Samsonite (1910 HK) 's share price has enjoyed a handsome recovery in the past year and the gutsy bottom picker traders have made around 136% since May 2020. Has the recovery trade been priced in? If not, how much upside is left? Or it is all just a euphoria? 

A channel check with flight processing software companies reveals that the recovery in the number of air travel passengers is real. There is of course a risk that there will be delayed recovery due to the emergence of the new variant or slower-than-expected vaccination exercise in the major part of the world.

Apart from that, Samsonite (1910 HK) looks like a buy to me especially when it has a decent amount of cash on the balance sheet. 

Samsonite (1910): Channel Checks Recovery

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>March 2021 was the first time in the past pandemic-stricken year that air travel volume has climbed back to the 2019 level pre-COVID-19 era. Volume recovery is the main thesis for Travelsky but somehow its share price has not received the same attention from investors to trade on par with the airlines that are still loss-making and naturally saddled with a higher debt to equity ratio. </p>
<p>Bullish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> . </p>
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March 2021 was the first time in the past pandemic-stricken year that air travel volume has climbed back to the 2019 level pre-COVID-19 era. Volume recovery is the main thesis for Travelsky but somehow its share price has not received the same attention from investors to trade on par with the airlines that are still loss-making and naturally saddled with a higher debt to equity ratio. 
Bullish on Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) . 


Travelsky (696): Recovery and Undervalued Vs Airlines

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

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<p>Data and anecdotes from a range of sources in December and January show the recovery in Chinese domestic travel demand has stalled. Looking forward, government estimates suggest travel activity over the Lunar New Year holiday in February will also remain muted. </p>
<p>In the run up to the long holiday period, Chinese officials have responded aggressively to Covid19 outbreaks in several Chinese cities, most of them in Northern China. Until vaccines reach most of the population and prove effective against new variants of the virus, travel demand -- outbound <em>and</em> domestic -- will likely remain depressed. Even a Summer rebound now appears optimistic. </p>
<p>A combination of hesitant consumers and necessarily aggressive government responses to new outbreaks leaves current travel demand <em>far</em> below normal (2019) levels. The stalled recovery in Chinese travel activity thus lags substantially the return of the Chinese consumer. With few signs of "pent-up" travel demand, it appears Chinese tourists may have altered spending priorities. </p>
<p>The Chinese travel sector will enjoy easy YoY "comps" in early 2021 as we lap the worst of the Covid19 crisis in H120. However, in the medium-term, we see a "new normal" developing: non-essential travel has become riskier and less attractive, and thus a lower priority for consumers, and this will likely remain the case until Covid19 is put decisively in the rear-view mirror.  </p>




Data and anecdotes from a range of sources in December and January show the recovery in Chinese domestic travel demand has stalled. Looking forward, government estimates suggest travel activity over the Lunar New Year holiday in February will also remain muted. 
In the run up to the long holiday period, Chinese officials have responded aggressively to Covid19 outbreaks in several Chinese cities, most of them in Northern China. Until vaccines reach most of the population and prove effective against new variants of the virus, travel demand -- outbound and domestic -- will likely remain depressed. Even a Summer rebound now appears optimistic. 
A combination of hesitant consumers and necessarily aggressive government responses to new outbreaks leaves current travel demand far below normal (2019) levels. The stalled recovery in Chinese travel activity thus lags substantially the return of the Chinese consumer. With few signs of "pent-up" travel demand, it appears Chinese tourists may have altered spending priorities. 
The Chinese travel sector will enjoy easy YoY "comps" in early 2021 as we lap the worst of the Covid19 crisis in H120. However, in the medium-term, we see a "new normal" developing: non-essential travel has become riskier and less attractive, and thus a lower priority for consumers, and this will likely remain the case until Covid19 is put decisively in the rear-view mirror.  

December-January Travel Data Confirm Stalled Domestic Recovery; Weak LNY Unlikely to Help

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<p>On December 26th, Beijing’s municipal government responded to a fresh outbreak of Covid19 by ordering residents to stay at home during the upcoming Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. LNY falls on February 12th next year, barely six weeks from now.  </p>
<p>The bad news out of Beijing highlights an important risk to Chinese travel-related companies: that yet <em>another</em> important holiday period could effectively be lost to Covid19. If the restrictions put in place by local authorities in Beijing extend to other large cities or provinces, it could push back a recovery in Chinese travel demand until Summer 2021 or even Golden Week, in October 2021.</p>
<p>In this note we explain why LNY travel matters, and why we now believe normal levels of LNY travel may again be lost in 2021. We also point to the example of Macau, which continues to see sub-par tourism demand five months after it eased travel restrictions for some Chinese visitors.</p>




On December 26th, Beijing’s municipal government responded to a fresh outbreak of Covid19 by ordering residents to stay at home during the upcoming Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. LNY falls on February 12th next year, barely six weeks from now.  
The bad news out of Beijing highlights an important risk to Chinese travel-related companies: that yet another important holiday period could effectively be lost to Covid19. If the restrictions put in place by local authorities in Beijing extend to other large cities or provinces, it could push back a recovery in Chinese travel demand until Summer 2021 or even Golden Week, in October 2021.
In this note we explain why LNY travel matters, and why we now believe normal levels of LNY travel may again be lost in 2021. We also point to the example of Macau, which continues to see sub-par tourism demand five months after it eased travel restrictions for some Chinese visitors.

Dreams Deferred: Looks Like Lunar New Year Travel Demand May Be Lost

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> remains the de-facto SaaS play in the Chinese domestic airlines' industry that is proven by the higher ROE and lower debt level compared to the airlines in general. Volumes have recovered post the worse COVID-19 period thanks to the decisive government policy and as of October 2020, the YoY variance has narrowed to -1.3% compared to -46.7% in May 2020, further reinforcing the investment thesis that domestic travel that makes up to 85% of the group's business is recovering on the right direction. </p>
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<p><strong>Investors should treat <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> as an ETF to get exposure to the air travel recovery in China without the hassle of picking which airlines to buy.</strong></p>
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Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) remains the de-facto SaaS play in the Chinese domestic airlines' industry that is proven by the higher ROE and lower debt level compared to the airlines in general. Volumes have recovered post the worse COVID-19 period thanks to the decisive government policy and as of October 2020, the YoY variance has narrowed to -1.3% compared to -46.7% in May 2020, further reinforcing the investment thesis that domestic travel that makes up to 85% of the group's business is recovering on the right direction. 

Investors should treat Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) as an ETF to get exposure to the air travel recovery in China without the hassle of picking which airlines to buy.


Travelsky (696): Muted Impact from New Virus

China

Travelsky Technology Limited provides information technology solutions for China's air travel and tourism industries.  The Company provides electronic travel distribution systems, or ETD, in China, develops airport passenger processing and air cargo systems, owns and operates real-time network for China's civil aviation industry, and operates Internet-based travel platform.

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Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)

Samsonite (1910): Channel Checks Recovery

Air travelers has started to recover implying that Samsonite's business recovery story is solid while the management has also coped efficiently...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky (696): Recovery and Undervalued Vs Airlines

Volume recovery is the main thesis for Travelsky but its share price has not received the same attention from investors and u/perform the airlines...

Henry Soediarko

December-January Travel Data Confirm Stalled Domestic Recovery; Weak LNY Unlikely to Help

The recovery in domestic travel demand stalled again in December, and we believe improvement will be muted in the near-term as officials battle...

Tracking Traffic

Dreams Deferred: Looks Like Lunar New Year Travel Demand May Be Lost

We now believe there is a better than even chance that much of the Chinese travel demand normally associated with LNY will be lost in 2021.

Tracking Traffic

Travelsky (696): Muted Impact from New Virus

Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) is comparable to an ETF for investors who want to get exposure to the air travel recovery in China without...

Henry Soediarko

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