Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite being a key beneficiary in travel and tourism in China, the rather muted growth in the first half does not bode well for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> .</li>
<li>YTD share price performance has reflected the above, but the deep discount valuation to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> might be temporary.</li>
<li>In the near term, the company's share price will not rebound as the company has less upside participation compared to Airlines and OTA. </li>
</ul>


Despite being a key beneficiary in travel and tourism in China, the rather muted growth in the first half does not bode well for Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) .
YTD share price performance has reflected the above, but the deep discount valuation to Trip.com (TCOM US) might be temporary.
In the near term, the company's share price will not rebound as the company has less upside participation compared to Airlines and OTA. 


Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items </li>
<li>Our target price of HKD9.92 <strong>(+21% UPSIDE)</strong> is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% 
Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items 
Our target price of HKD9.92 (+21% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    


Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

<ul>
<li>1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue. </li>
<li>Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid's numbers. </li>
<li>Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean). </li>
</ul>


1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue. 
Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid's numbers. 
Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean). 


Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  </li>
<li>Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019</li>
<li>TP of HKD9.92 <strong>(+8% UPSIDE)</strong> is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  
Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019
TP of HKD9.92 (+8% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   


Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at our capping flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).


Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25/Sep25: Capping Flows in June and Index Changes in September

China

Travelsky Technology Limited provides information technology solutions for China's air travel and tourism industries.  The Company provides electronic travel distribution systems, or ETD, in China, develops airport passenger processing and air cargo systems, owns and operates real-time network for China's civil aviation industry, and operates Internet-based travel platform.

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Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)

Travelsky (696): Sleepy Giant

Travelsky's dependability as the engine behind airports is known, but it also has less upside participation while the OTAs and airlines have more...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

Strong 1H24 results with strong growth momentum. China's air traffic grows, but international numbers still lag pre-Covid levels. Fair value...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...

Mohshin Aziz

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25/Sep25: Capping Flows in June and Index Changes in September

We estimate total one-way flow to be US$138mn during the June 2025 rebalance event which translates into a turnover of around 2.8%. In September...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Travelsky (696): Sleepy Giant

Travelsky's dependability as the engine behind airports is known, but it also has less upside participation while the OTAs and airlines have more...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

​Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

Strong 1H24 results with strong growth momentum. China's air traffic grows, but international numbers still lag pre-Covid levels. Fair value...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

​Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...

Mohshin Aziz

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25/Sep25: Capping Flows in June and Index Changes in September

We estimate total one-way flow to be US$138mn during the June 2025 rebalance event which translates into a turnover of around 2.8%. In September...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...