Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>Banking profits are under attack from FinTech</strong><br>Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.</p><p>Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.</p>

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p>All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).</p>

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<p>We've taken a close look at banks' energy exposures and potential losses, and see both good news and bad news for investors.</p><p>First, the good news--for most banks, we think the losses will be manageable. And now the bad news-- nearly all banks are under-reserved and several could be facing capital shortfalls in a worst-case scenario.</p><p><em>Analyst: Erin Davis</em></p>

We've taken a close look at banks' energy exposures and potential losses, and see both good news and bad news for investors.First, the good news--for most banks, we think the losses will be manageable. And now the bad news-- nearly all banks are under-reserved and several could be facing capital shortfalls in a worst-case scenario.Analyst: Erin Davis

Banks Look Under-Reserved for Energy Losses

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div>
<strong>Our S&amp;P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting this ST long</strong> ahead of the NFP Friday. A weak NFP number would boost the S&amp;P marginally into ideal short territory at 1,938 with risk to 1,950. Weaker sector links still look ugly with a focus on shorting small caps and financials. Our macro bear view stands - Short this rally for a slide to 1,720 and ultimately 1,620 by the summer.</div><div>Much like the BOJ induced…</div>


Our S&amp;P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting this ST long ahead of the NFP Friday. A weak NFP number would boost the S&amp;P marginally into ideal short territory at 1,938 with risk to 1,950. Weaker sector links still look ugly with a focus on shorting small caps and financials. Our macro bear view stands - Short this rally for a slide to 1,720 and ultimately 1,620 by the summer.Much like the BOJ induced…

<p>Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.</p><div>S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…</div>

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…

United States

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

The Allstate Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property-liability insurance, as well as other types of insurance in the United States and Canada. The Company primarily sells private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance through independent and specialized brokers. Allstate also sells life insurance, annuity, and group pension products through agents.

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. provides a range of insurance products.  The Company's products include property and casualty insurance, group benefits and mutual funds.  Hartford Financial is based and operates in the U.S.

Erie Indemnity Company is the management company for the Erie Insurance Exchange. The Company is also involved in the property and casualty insurance business through its wholly-owned subsidiaries and through its management of Flagship City Insurance Company. Erie Indemnity sells auto, home, life and business insurance in the United States.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through reorganization of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, Limited.  The Group writes marine, fire, casualty, automobile, life, and allied insurance policies. MS&AD Insurance Group also operates financial services and agencies.

The Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company Ltd. underwrites and sells life, health and annuity insurance to groups and individuals. The Company offers a wide variety of insurance products to suit different needs, ranging from children's school tuition to emergency funds for the elderly.

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides traditional life, health care, and accident insurances, as well as banking, security underwriting, and brokerage services.

Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. offers life and non-life insurance and reinsurance throughout the world.  The Company offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, aviation, transport, fire, general liability, and credit insurance and reinsurance.

Hannover Rueck SE provides reinsurance services.  The Company offers life, health, accident, damage, property, and high risk specialty reinsurance.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MunichRe) provides financial services. The Company offers reinsurance, insurance, and asset management services. MunichRe has subsidiaries in most major financial centers throughout the world.

Swiss Re AG offers reinsurance, insurance and insurance linked financial market products. The Company offers automobile, liability, accident, engineering, marine, aviation, life, and health insurance. Swiss Re also manages fixed-income and equity investments for itself and other insurance companies.

Sun Life Financial Inc. is an international financial services organization providing a diverse range of wealth accumulation and protection products and services.  The Company provides insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pensions, investment management, trust services, and banking services.  Sun Life serves individuals and corporate customers worldwide.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

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Travelers Cos (TRV US)

Crowdfunding as an Investment Theme

Banking profits are under attack from FinTechOver the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their...

CM Research

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

Banks Look Under-Reserved for Energy Losses

We've taken a close look at banks' energy exposures and potential losses, and see both good news and bad news for investors.First, the good...

Morningstar, Inc.

S&P Cap, DXY in Line, WTI and Copper

Our S&P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting...

Thomas Schroeder

Increasing Shorts on Strength

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

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