Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Yesterday Toyota, Hino and Isuzu announced a new partnership to accelerate development of commercial vehicles utilising CASE technologies. The move is something of a surprise given that Toyota and Isuzu previously ended their capital tie-up (formed in 2006 to develop diesel engines) in 2018 without anything of real substance coming to fruition. It is, however, an indication that the Japanese auto sector will continue to consolidate around Toyota as we have been saying for some time.

Yesterday Toyota, Hino and Isuzu announced a new partnership to accelerate development of commercial vehicles utilising CASE technologies. The move is something of a surprise given that Toyota and Isuzu previously ended their capital tie-up (formed in 2006 to develop diesel engines) in 2018 without anything of real substance coming to fruition. It is, however, an indication that the Japanese auto sector will continue to consolidate around Toyota as we have been saying for some time.

Toyota – Isuzu Re-Tie-Up Drives Further Japanese Consolidation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-to-widen-interest-rate-target-range-to-support-bank-profits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said "BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ "would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/872/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.26.17+PM.png?1616311594" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195872"></figure></section>Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. The details are <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/rel210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. The presentation with the basic details is <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.<ul>
<li>The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).</li>
<li>Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.</li>
<li>The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.</li>
</ul>It based the new policy on the Reference <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">document</a> which backs up the changes in policy is much more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.The hypotheses and results are described here.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/869/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.02.28+PM.png?1616310186" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195869"></figure></section>There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...<div class="content-highlight">When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </div><h3>What This Means</h3><ul>
<li>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).</li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. </li>
</ul><h3>What This Does NOT Mean</h3><ul><li>It does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.</li></ul><hr>It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. So we do so below the fold.Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup.

On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an article during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said "BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ "would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. The details are here. The presentation with the basic details is here.
The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).
Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.
The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.
It based the new policy on the Reference document which backs up the changes in policy is much more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.The hypotheses and results are described here.There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  What This Means
When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  
Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).
Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. 
What This Does NOT MeanIt does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. So we do so below the fold.Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. 

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

I often note that whilst Asia arrived at the ESG party fashionably late, it is making up for lost time, going from idle to full-throttle often by leapfrogging large patches of middle ground. One apropos example is the recent surge in Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) hires by Asian companies.Rather than going a typical route – like having someone in Marketing do double-duty for a year or so to delay shelling out big bucks for a proper CSO – companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange (SGX SP)</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (0005 HK)</a> have recruited some seriously-qualified, executive-level CSOs.Big news, but I wouldn't have bothered with it a few years ago.Until recently, there wasn't much "Chief" or "Officer" to the CSO role. At best, companies hadn't yet figured out what to do with a CSO. At worst, they handed out CSO titles for optics; "greenwashing," as it were. CSOs were idealistic and motivated. Managements and Boards just didn't get it, yet.CSOs have since been excepted as equals into the "C-Suite," having proven their worth and earning a voice in all levels of strategic discourse. Exceptions do exist, the CSO role is varied and continues to evolve, and that "greenwashing" daemon still rears its ugly head every now and again.On the whole, however, CSOs are more influential than ever.From an ESG investing angle, the existence of a CSO has two specific implications: 1) it serves as a barometer of overall ESG commitment, and 2) it is associated with ESG outperformance, and lower ESG risk. For some issuers, it can even portend (portend, not predict) future ESG performance.Recent CSO activity in Asia inspired me to dig deeper. "Deeper" is relative, as the CSO pool in Asia (and elsewhere for that matter) is still very shallow. Nevertheless, this is a comprehensive analysis of the evolving CSO role in Asia – generally, and by cross-sections and topics such as:<ul>
<li>
Results: Correlative or causal, CSOs are linked to better ESG performance and lower risk.</li>
<li>
Country: Singapore and the Philippines have the most CSOs by company-count and size.  </li>
<li>
Sectors: Asian-company CSOs tend to concentrate in large-cap sectors and/or industries.</li>
<li>
Education: CSOs have more advanced degrees, from top universities, than do non-CSOs.</li>
<li>
Gender: Singapore and Thailand have the most female CSOs; Japan and India the least.</li>
</ul>

I often note that whilst Asia arrived at the ESG party fashionably late, it is making up for lost time, going from idle to full-throttle often by leapfrogging large patches of middle ground. One apropos example is the recent surge in Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) hires by Asian companies.Rather than going a typical route – like having someone in Marketing do double-duty for a year or so to delay shelling out big bucks for a proper CSO – companies such as Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) and  HSBC Holdings (0005 HK) have recruited some seriously-qualified, executive-level CSOs.Big news, but I wouldn't have bothered with it a few years ago.Until recently, there wasn't much "Chief" or "Officer" to the CSO role. At best, companies hadn't yet figured out what to do with a CSO. At worst, they handed out CSO titles for optics; "greenwashing," as it were. CSOs were idealistic and motivated. Managements and Boards just didn't get it, yet.CSOs have since been excepted as equals into the "C-Suite," having proven their worth and earning a voice in all levels of strategic discourse. Exceptions do exist, the CSO role is varied and continues to evolve, and that "greenwashing" daemon still rears its ugly head every now and again.On the whole, however, CSOs are more influential than ever.From an ESG investing angle, the existence of a CSO has two specific implications: 1) it serves as a barometer of overall ESG commitment, and 2) it is associated with ESG outperformance, and lower ESG risk. For some issuers, it can even portend (portend, not predict) future ESG performance.Recent CSO activity in Asia inspired me to dig deeper. "Deeper" is relative, as the CSO pool in Asia (and elsewhere for that matter) is still very shallow. Nevertheless, this is a comprehensive analysis of the evolving CSO role in Asia – generally, and by cross-sections and topics such as:

Results: Correlative or causal, CSOs are linked to better ESG performance and lower risk.

Country: Singapore and the Philippines have the most CSOs by company-count and size.  

Sectors: Asian-company CSOs tend to concentrate in large-cap sectors and/or industries.

Education: CSOs have more advanced degrees, from top universities, than do non-CSOs.

Gender: Singapore and Thailand have the most female CSOs; Japan and India the least.


The Rise of the Chief Sustainability Officer in Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Suzuki-chairman-Osamu-Suzuki-to-step-down" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei announced today</a> that 91-year old Suzuki chairman, Osamu Suzuki would be stepping down in June. Osamu Suzuki was responsible for key strategic decisions such as targeting the mini-vehicle market in Japan and entering India long before competitors recognised its potential, demonstrating remarkable foresight. His departure leaves a vacuum in leadership that will be difficult to fill, but the foundation for the future has been laid in Suzuki’s strengthened relationship with Toyota.

The Nikkei announced today that 91-year old Suzuki chairman, Osamu Suzuki would be stepping down in June. Osamu Suzuki was responsible for key strategic decisions such as targeting the mini-vehicle market in Japan and entering India long before competitors recognised its potential, demonstrating remarkable foresight. His departure leaves a vacuum in leadership that will be difficult to fill, but the foundation for the future has been laid in Suzuki’s strengthened relationship with Toyota.

Suzuki – Osamu Suzuki Stepping Down Could Accelerate Move Into Toyota Group

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.

After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Toyota – Isuzu Re-Tie-Up Drives Further Japanese Consolidation

We believe the tie-up between Isuzu and Toyota is an indication that the Japanese auto sector will continue to consolidate around Toyota as we have...

Mio Kato

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

The BOJ has announced a change in ETF Buying Program Parameters. The study/review they did is required reading to understand how they might buy...

Travis Lundy

The Rise of the Chief Sustainability Officer in Asia

Chief Sustainability Officers can impact ESG performance and risk-adjusted returns. CSOs are becoming more common anong Asian companies, which are...

Kyle Rudden

Suzuki – Osamu Suzuki Stepping Down Could Accelerate Move Into Toyota Group

The retirement of Chairman Osamu Suzuki could accelerate moves by Suzuki and Toyota to more closely integrate their operations

Mio Kato

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

A chip shortage is preventing the automotive industry from returning to full volume. Meanwhile Japan's earthquake and bad weather in Texas are...

Jim Handy

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