Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Having increased its global market share from fifth to second in 2018 thanks to the technological advantages, the company's share price has disappointed its shareholders and underperformed its customers' in China due to its heavy reliance on US customers such as Ford and GM.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/291/original/image_44632301051596175067736.png?1596175067" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149291"></figure><div class="content-remarks"><p>source: Capital IQ</p></div><div>With the new initiative to focus more on China and Emerging Markets, the company creates an opportunity to diversify its revenue geographically and participate in the rebound in the Chinese auto sector. </div><div></div><div>The company is severely undervalued compared to the peers by 68% in PER and 38% in EV/EBITDA despite higher profitability (560% higher ROE) and leaner capital structure (50% better in D/E), showing <span>potential for re-rating</span>. </div><div></div><div>
<p>If the company's AES is to be implemented this year and adopted by various customers in China to start with, then the revenue that the company receives will bolster its current net income (USD 232.4 million) by around 38% to 570% in the next few years depending on the pace of the adoption and market share. Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexteer-automotive-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15483:1" rel="noopener">Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK)</a> .</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/149/289/original/image_65787491341596174865541.png?1596174865" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="149289"></figure><div class="content-remarks"><p>source: Capital IQ</p></div>
</div>

Having increased its global market share from fifth to second in 2018 thanks to the technological advantages, the company's share price has disappointed its shareholders and underperformed its customers' in China due to its heavy reliance on US customers such as Ford and GM.source: Capital IQWith the new initiative to focus more on China and Emerging Markets, the company creates an opportunity to diversify its revenue geographically and participate in the rebound in the Chinese auto sector. The company is severely undervalued compared to the peers by 68% in PER and 38% in EV/EBITDA despite higher profitability (560% higher ROE) and leaner capital structure (50% better in D/E), showing potential for re-rating. 
If the company's AES is to be implemented this year and adopted by various customers in China to start with, then the revenue that the company receives will bolster its current net income (USD 232.4 million) by around 38% to 570% in the next few years depending on the pace of the adoption and market share. Buy Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK) .
source: Capital IQ


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Following Mitsubishi Motors’ weak results and grim forecasts which drove the stock down 12.6% today, Nissan just reported relatively weak results and offered guidance which, while not quite as shocking as that of Mitsubishi Motors, leaves little to be optimistic about.</p>

Following Mitsubishi Motors’ weak results and grim forecasts which drove the stock down 12.6% today, Nissan just reported relatively weak results and offered guidance which, while not quite as shocking as that of Mitsubishi Motors, leaves little to be optimistic about.

Nissan – Two Strikes For the Alliance and a Zero Dividend

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Auto exposures are in decline among Global active investors.  Average holding weights are towards the lower end of the 9-year range, at 0.83%.  A record low of 49% of the 406 funds in our analysis have exposure to the Autos sector.</li>
<li>Fund activity over the last 6-months saw Global managers selling down stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daimler-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Daimler AG (DAI GR)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ford-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19225:1" rel="noopener">Ford Motor Co (F US)</a> . <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag-pref" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:734:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY)</a> were the main bright spots as ownership levels grew over the period.</li>
<li>Overall, the auto industry is becoming increasingly unattractive to the average Global fund manager, with increases in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> exposure unable to counteract significant declines in ownership across the more traditional auto manufacturers.</li>
</ul>


Auto exposures are in decline among Global active investors.  Average holding weights are towards the lower end of the 9-year range, at 0.83%.  A record low of 49% of the 406 funds in our analysis have exposure to the Autos sector.
Fund activity over the last 6-months saw Global managers selling down stakes in Daimler AG (DAI GR) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Ford Motor Co (F US) . Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY) were the main bright spots as ownership levels grew over the period.
Overall, the auto industry is becoming increasingly unattractive to the average Global fund manager, with increases in Tesla Motors (TSLA US) exposure unable to counteract significant declines in ownership across the more traditional auto manufacturers.


The Global Autos Break Down, Though Tesla on Full Charge

<p>Nikola Corporation Executive Chairman Trevor Milton has been doing the rounds with social media interviews and recently spoke to noted Tesla sceptic, @TeslaCharts on his podcast. The discussion covered some interesting topics such as grid balancing and other methods to reduce hydrogen costs and Nikola’s unique business concept. In light of the 59% drop in the stock price in just over a month, we examine these topics below.</p>

Nikola Corporation Executive Chairman Trevor Milton has been doing the rounds with social media interviews and recently spoke to noted Tesla sceptic, @TeslaCharts on his podcast. The discussion covered some interesting topics such as grid balancing and other methods to reduce hydrogen costs and Nikola’s unique business concept. In light of the 59% drop in the stock price in just over a month, we examine these topics below.

Nikola – Grid Balancing, Hydrogen and Vertical Integration

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STRESS TESTS</strong> - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.</p><p><strong>ALTMAN Z-SCORES</strong> - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  </p><p><strong>QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS</strong> - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries - <strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a></strong>,<strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a></strong>- have been excluded from this analysis. </p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Nexteer (1316): AES to the Rescue

Having increased its global market share from fifth to second in 2018 thanks to the technological advantages, the company's share price has...

Henry Soediarko

Nissan – Two Strikes For the Alliance and a Zero Dividend

Following Mitsubishi Motors’ weak results and grim forecasts which drove the stock down 12.6% today, Nissan just reported relatively weak results...

Mio Kato

The Global Autos Break Down, Though Tesla on Full Charge

Auto exposures are in decline among Global active investors. Average holding weights are towards the lower end of the 9-year range, at 0.83%. A...

Steven Holden

Nikola – Grid Balancing, Hydrogen and Vertical Integration

Nikola Corporation Executive Chairman Trevor Milton has been doing the rounds with social media interviews and recently spoke to noted Tesla...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

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