Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Toyota-agrees-to-boost-pay-on-union-s-terms-in-rare-speed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> today that Toyota had already agreed to accept its unions wage hike demands and in full. </li>
<li>This is unusual given typically fair but tough negotiations and Toyota’s penchant for very strict cost control. </li>
<li>Although the news does not appear to be attracting any great attention we believe it is actually quite significant.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported today that Toyota had already agreed to accept its unions wage hike demands and in full. 
This is unusual given typically fair but tough negotiations and Toyota’s penchant for very strict cost control. 
Although the news does not appear to be attracting any great attention we believe it is actually quite significant.


Toyota – Quick Wage Negotiation Agreement Means Something

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>This year the market presents investors with opportunities, especially in the technology sector, and we believe VC-backed Amplitude is one of them. </li>
<li>The market cap of the leading product and data analytics unicorn fell to ~$2.3B, keeping in mind last private round valuation was ~$4B in June of 2021. </li>
<li>$21 valuation, based on ~10x 2022E EV/Revenue and ~8x 2023E EV/Revenue, applies to our bear case revenue estimates of $226M in CY22 and $287M in CY23.</li>
</ul>


This year the market presents investors with opportunities, especially in the technology sector, and we believe VC-backed Amplitude is one of them. 
The market cap of the leading product and data analytics unicorn fell to ~$2.3B, keeping in mind last private round valuation was ~$4B in June of 2021. 
$21 valuation, based on ~10x 2022E EV/Revenue and ~8x 2023E EV/Revenue, applies to our bear case revenue estimates of $226M in CY22 and $287M in CY23.


Amplitude – Our Stock Pick With Huge Upside Potential

<ul>
<li>Toyota’s 3Q results were in-line with revenue and OP 2% above consensus and a slight QoQ improvement. </li>
<li>The FY production plan was revised down as expected though we see slight upside to the 8.25m unit plan. </li>
<li>Toyota has now averaged ¥853bn in OP over the last six pandemic driven quarters.</li>
</ul>


Toyota’s 3Q results were in-line with revenue and OP 2% above consensus and a slight QoQ improvement. 
The FY production plan was revised down as expected though we see slight upside to the 8.25m unit plan. 
Toyota has now averaged ¥853bn in OP over the last six pandemic driven quarters.


Toyota – In-Line 3Q Sets Up Strong 4Q Beat

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a></strong>'s implied stub and simple ratio with 8.5%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a></strong> has significantly bifurcated in the last 12 months. </li>
<li>Yet recent and forward earnings at the stub level indicate this dislocation is unjustified. </li>
<li>Toyota Industries is a set up at this current level. </li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s implied stub and simple ratio with 8.5%-held Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has significantly bifurcated in the last 12 months. 
Yet recent and forward earnings at the stub level indicate this dislocation is unjustified. 
Toyota Industries is a set up at this current level. 


Toyota Industries Back To Covid Lows Vs. Toyota Motors

<ul>
<li>We have pointed out previously that the hype surrounding Tesla’s FSD system was delusional. </li>
<li>We have always regarded their differentiating factor as simply being a greater risk tolerance for endangering the lives of their customers. </li>
<li>However, some automakers are actually making efforts to improve safety… and they actually know what they are doing.</li>
</ul>


We have pointed out previously that the hype surrounding Tesla’s FSD system was delusional. 
We have always regarded their differentiating factor as simply being a greater risk tolerance for endangering the lives of their customers. 
However, some automakers are actually making efforts to improve safety… and they actually know what they are doing.


Toyota – So About That Whole Tesla Being Years Ahead of The Competition in Autonomous Thing…

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Toyota – Quick Wage Negotiation Agreement Means Something

Toyota accepting its unions wage hike demands in full is unusual and is significant in our view, not just for the auto sector outlook but also for...

Mio Kato

Amplitude – Our Stock Pick With Huge Upside Potential

Our fundamental analysis suggests that Amplitude stock has a limited downside potential and is trading at a significant discount valuation to peers.

Andrei Zakharov

Toyota – In-Line 3Q Sets Up Strong 4Q Beat

Toyota has now averaged ¥853bn in OP over the last six pandemic driven quarters and consensus estimates fail to appreciate the potential gains once...

Mio Kato

Toyota Industries Back To Covid Lows Vs. Toyota Motors

Unless the market were assigning a significantly reduced valuation for the stub ops, this protracted bifurcation is unjustified. As it is, an EBIT...

David Blennerhassett

Toyota – So About That Whole Tesla Being Years Ahead of The Competition in Autonomous Thing…

We have pointed out previously that the hype surrounding Tesla’s FSD system was delusional. Meanwhile, Toyota is actually doing some innovative...

Mio Kato

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