Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US Equities take a breather as earnings intensify; WSJ saying Markets face threat from weak earnings; China ask banks to delay buying USD; Eurozone employment hits all-time low</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.3;  Earnings in full swing as a massive beat from Toyota - China doesn't matter; MegaBanks MUFG, Mizuho Beat  </li>
<li>NUGGET.  Push and pull factors are joining to push the massive Japanese household savings into the equity market. Its all coming together - watch out above !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US Equities take a breather as earnings intensify; WSJ saying Markets face threat from weak earnings; China ask banks to delay buying USD; Eurozone employment hits all-time low
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.3;  Earnings in full swing as a massive beat from Toyota - China doesn't matter; MegaBanks MUFG, Mizuho Beat  
NUGGET.  Push and pull factors are joining to push the massive Japanese household savings into the equity market. Its all coming together - watch out above !


Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing - generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company's earnings and share price outlook </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  US Equities close July a winning note as markets continue to price in the Goldilocks economy; Rally has broadened out beyond a few select tech stocks
JAPAN. NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates;  Earnings in full swing - generally supportive; Nintendo-next Gen Console Coming ?
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974)- rumour of a Next Gen Console in 2024 is gaining traction. If true, would completely reboot the company's earnings and share price outlook 


Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can't Keep a Super Mario Down!

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.</li>
<li>If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.</li>
<li>If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today, with Q1 earnings, which I found less than great, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> announced a Tender Offer Buyback to repurchase up to 64,102,500 shares for up to ¥250.03175bn.</li>
<li>The Tender Offer - at ¥3900/share vs Last at ¥4,271/share (designed for cross-holding unwinds) - goes from 31-July through 28-August. It fills the 83.3% of the buyback programme announced 11-May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> has announced it would sell ¥250bn of shares into this Tender Offer. This is less interesting than it looks. The whole thing is.</li>
</ul>


Today, with Q1 earnings, which I found less than great, KDDI Corp (9433 JP) announced a Tender Offer Buyback to repurchase up to 64,102,500 shares for up to ¥250.03175bn.
The Tender Offer - at ¥3900/share vs Last at ¥4,271/share (designed for cross-holding unwinds) - goes from 31-July through 28-August. It fills the 83.3% of the buyback programme announced 11-May.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has announced it would sell ¥250bn of shares into this Tender Offer. This is less interesting than it looks. The whole thing is.


KDDI (9433) - Own Share Tender Offer, Toyota To Sell (Gasp!)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Robosense Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (ROBO HK)</a> (RT) is looking to raise around US$400m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (ROBO HK) (RT) is looking to raise around US$400m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
As of Mar 23, it had earned design wins for mass production of LiDAR for 52 vehicles with 21OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, ranking No. 1 globally, according to CIC.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Not a Whole Lot of Earnings

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)

Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities

US Equites pause; Nikkei Futures -0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.3; Earnings in full swing as a massive beat from Toyota - China doesn't matter;...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can't Keep a Super Mario Down!

SPX Up(agaiin); NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates; Earnings in full swing -...

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Not a Whole Lot of Earnings

Robosense Technology is looking to raise around US$400m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive...

Sumeet Singh

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Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities

US Equites pause; Nikkei Futures -0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.3; Earnings in full swing as a massive beat from Toyota - China doesn't matter;...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| Goldilocks in Play Everywhere; NUGGET: New Console? Can't Keep a Super Mario Down!

SPX Up(agaiin); NKY Futures +0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.3; NKY powers above 33k level despite prospect of higher rates; Earnings in full swing -...

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

KDDI (9433) - Own Share Tender Offer, Toyota To Sell (Gasp!)

KDDI has announced a tender offer to fulfil 83% of their original buyback program. Toyota will sell. This looks more important, governance-wise,...

Travis Lundy

Robosense Technology Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Not a Whole Lot of Earnings

Robosense Technology is looking to raise around US$400m (estimated) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive...

Sumeet Singh