Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.</li>
</ul>


Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.</li>
<li>Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.</li>
<li>The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.</li>
</ul>


China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.


Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

<ul>
<li>Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.</li>
<li>Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.</li>
<li>Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?</li>
</ul>


Tech strong despite market rotating out of NVDA, with EV related gaining on Cali plan.
Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination; expect a strong follow through for JP related plays.
Activists are on the hunt in Japan - how long before someone starts building a stake in Kyocera?


Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Japan

TOTO LTD. manufactures and sells china and earthenware fittings and bathroom accessories.  The Company's products include ceramic toilet fixtures and sinks, bath tubs, dressers, and solar powered water heaters.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Toto Ltd (5332 JP)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in February. Kokusai Electric is one of them; but it is also a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in February. Kokusai Electric is one of them; but it is also a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

​Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Time to Revisit the Most Bungled Conglomerate Left Standing?

​Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.

Andrew Jackson

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Tech strong despite market shift away from NVDA,. Home builders surge on Bessent's nomination, Kyocera ripe for activist involvement.