Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q3, TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts by 6.4% but missed EPS estimates by 3.7%. Revenue and adjusted net income fell by 2.8% YoY and 37%, respectively.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ average liquids price realisation fell 2.4% YoY, European refining margins dropped 84.7%, while LNG price realisation rose 3.7% YoY.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies' Q3 cash flow fell 27% YoY to USD 6.8 billion. It announced USD 2 billion in Q4 buybacks and a 0.79 euro/share interim dividend.</li>
</ul>


In Q3, TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts by 6.4% but missed EPS estimates by 3.7%. Revenue and adjusted net income fell by 2.8% YoY and 37%, respectively.
TotalEnergies’ average liquids price realisation fell 2.4% YoY, European refining margins dropped 84.7%, while LNG price realisation rose 3.7% YoY.
TotalEnergies' Q3 cash flow fell 27% YoY to USD 6.8 billion. It announced USD 2 billion in Q4 buybacks and a 0.79 euro/share interim dividend.


[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies' Profitability Weighed Down by Sharp Decline in Refining Margins

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>TotalEnergies, in its Third Quarter 2024 Earnings, reported a mix of robust operational and financial achievements, and faced some challenges primarily linked to the global energy market conditions.</li><li>The call, led by CEO Patrick Pouyanne and CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire, emphasized the perseverance of TotalEnergies' integrated business model amidst volatile markets, highlighting disciplined cost management and strategic investments.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

TotalEnergies, in its Third Quarter 2024 Earnings, reported a mix of robust operational and financial achievements, and faced some challenges primarily linked to the global energy market conditions.The call, led by CEO Patrick Pouyanne and CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire, emphasized the perseverance of TotalEnergies' integrated business model amidst volatile markets, highlighting disciplined cost management and strategic investments.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

TotalEnergies SE: An Insight Into Its Macroeconomic and Market Adaptability! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 17.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 19.8% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies' OI PCR at 0.54 signals neutral sentiment, while a 92% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 70 and 72.5.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ short interest has risen for two consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 6.79 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 41% surge from 30/Sep and a 41.5% rise since 15/Jul.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies will report Q3 earnings on 31/Oct, with analysts expecting a 17.8% YoY fall in revenue and a 19.8% drop in EPS, due to weaker crude prices and refining margins.
TotalEnergies' OI PCR at 0.54 signals neutral sentiment, while a 92% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI clusters around strikes 70 and 72.5.
TotalEnergies’ short interest has risen for two consecutive biweekly periods, reaching 6.79 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 41% surge from 30/Sep and a 41.5% rise since 15/Jul.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies’ OI PCR in Neutral Zone; Short Interest Rises in October

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies’ revenue is expected to fall 9.1% QoQ and 17.8% YoY in Q3, while its EPS is expected to rise 6.6% QoQ but fall 19.8% YoY. </li>
<li>TotalEnergies anticipates a decline in downstream profitability due to a 65.7% QoQ drop in European refining margins, though increased gas prices are expected to partially offset lower oil prices.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies raised its annual oil and gas output growth forecast to 3% through 2030. Targets natural gas to comprise 50% of its total sales mix by 2030.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies’ revenue is expected to fall 9.1% QoQ and 17.8% YoY in Q3, while its EPS is expected to rise 6.6% QoQ but fall 19.8% YoY. 
TotalEnergies anticipates a decline in downstream profitability due to a 65.7% QoQ drop in European refining margins, though increased gas prices are expected to partially offset lower oil prices.
TotalEnergies raised its annual oil and gas output growth forecast to 3% through 2030. Targets natural gas to comprise 50% of its total sales mix by 2030.


[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.


[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

France

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

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TotalEnergies (TTE FP)

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies' Profitability Weighed Down by Sharp Decline in Refining Margins

TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts but missed EPS estimates in Q3, with falling revenue and net income. Cash flow dropped 27% YoY but the firm...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies SE: An Insight Into Its Macroeconomic and Market Adaptability! - Major Drivers

TotalEnergies, in its Third Quarter 2024 Earnings, reported a mix of robust operational and financial achievements, and faced some challenges...

Baptista Research

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies’ OI PCR in Neutral Zone; Short Interest Rises in October

TotalEnergies revenue and EPS expected to fall YoY in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment, while volume PCR shows bullish sentiment. Short...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

TotalEnergies' revenue and EPS are expected to decline YoY due to weak crude oil prices in Q3. The firm’s long-term growth prospects are strong...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Review] TotalEnergies' Profitability Weighed Down by Sharp Decline in Refining Margins

​TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts but missed EPS estimates in Q3, with falling revenue and net income. Cash flow dropped 27% YoY but the firm...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies SE: An Insight Into Its Macroeconomic and Market Adaptability! - Major Drivers

TotalEnergies, in its Third Quarter 2024 Earnings, reported a mix of robust operational and financial achievements, and faced some challenges...

Baptista Research

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] TotalEnergies’ OI PCR in Neutral Zone; Short Interest Rises in October

TotalEnergies revenue and EPS expected to fall YoY in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment, while volume PCR shows bullish sentiment. Short...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies at Risk from Oil Price Decline, Better Gas Prices Offer Relief

TotalEnergies' revenue and EPS are expected to decline YoY due to weak crude oil prices in Q3. The firm’s long-term growth prospects are strong...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

​US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies beat revenue forecasts but missed EPS estimates in Q3, with falling revenue and net income. Cash flow dropped 27% YoY but the firm...

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...