Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toshiba stock has been slightly weak since earnings and its official spinoff announcement. </li>
<li>After speaking to the company, we came away more encouraged about the core business. </li>
<li>However, we believe real buying will not come in until there is more clarity on its future and would thus target a lower entry point.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba stock has been slightly weak since earnings and its official spinoff announcement. 
After speaking to the company, we came away more encouraged about the core business. 
However, we believe real buying will not come in until there is more clarity on its future and would thus target a lower entry point.


Toshiba – Processing Things After Speaking to the Company

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this report, we have crawled through over ten years of technical publications to analyze the Fuel Cell space. The top five companies we screen from a technology perspective are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-motors-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1" rel="noopener">General Motors Co (GM US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloom-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34062:1" rel="noopener">Bloom Energy Corp (BE US)</a> Technologically automakers (Japanese in particular) dominate the fuel cell sector. Among pure plays, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloom-energy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34062:1" rel="noopener">Bloom Energy Corp (BE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ballard-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25813:1" rel="noopener">Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN)</a> are best positioned and perhaps the only ones who come somewhat close to the auto OEMs from a technology perspective. Some lesser-known private players that have gained traction in technological terms over the last five years are Dioxide Materials, 24M Technologies, and Bayotech.Currently, batteries have a decisive advantage over fuel cells, and as a business proposition, fuel cells have so far mostly failed to live up to their technological promise. However, fuel cells using hydrogen generated from renewables offer a much lower environmental impact across their lifecycle. This sustains investor interest in the hope that system price declines, economies of scale, lower cost of renewable energy generation, and maturation as a business could make FC competitive longer term.

In this report, we have crawled through over ten years of technical publications to analyze the Fuel Cell space. The top five companies we screen from a technology perspective are Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), General Motors Co (GM US), and Bloom Energy Corp (BE US) Technologically automakers (Japanese in particular) dominate the fuel cell sector. Among pure plays, Bloom Energy Corp (BE US) and Ballard Power Systems (BLDP CN) are best positioned and perhaps the only ones who come somewhat close to the auto OEMs from a technology perspective. Some lesser-known private players that have gained traction in technological terms over the last five years are Dioxide Materials, 24M Technologies, and Bayotech.Currently, batteries have a decisive advantage over fuel cells, and as a business proposition, fuel cells have so far mostly failed to live up to their technological promise. However, fuel cells using hydrogen generated from renewables offer a much lower environmental impact across their lifecycle. This sustains investor interest in the hope that system price declines, economies of scale, lower cost of renewable energy generation, and maturation as a business could make FC competitive longer term.

Stock Ideas From Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look into Fuel Cells

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Friday 12 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> released earnings (<a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/finance/er/er2021/q2/ter2021q2e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a>, <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/pr/pdf/tpr2021q2e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>), a slight forecast revision to full year sales (upward), and its long-awaited Strategic Plan (<a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/pr/pdf/tpr2021q2e_4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Process</a>, <a href="https://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/pr/pdf/tpr2021q2e_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Plan</a>)</li>
<li>The Strategic Review Committee surveyed and met with investors, potential acquirers, and consultants, and devised a plan (<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/045c6366-3c54-4462-89b4-95246122c948" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previewed</a> by the FT) to split into three companies by March 2024.</li>
<li>This is at a time bold, yet unexciting. Promising, yet somehow not. They've been well-advised in some areas, less well-advised in others. It's complicated. AND there is a buyback.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 12 November, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) released earnings (results, presentation), a slight forecast revision to full year sales (upward), and its long-awaited Strategic Plan (Process, Plan)
The Strategic Review Committee surveyed and met with investors, potential acquirers, and consultants, and devised a plan (previewed by the FT) to split into three companies by March 2024.
This is at a time bold, yet unexciting. Promising, yet somehow not. They've been well-advised in some areas, less well-advised in others. It's complicated. AND there is a buyback.


Toshiba Strategic Review - Bold and Unexciting, Promising But Not.. Doesn't Solve the Problem

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, Sydney Airports, SPH, SingTel, Oil Search, Japex/Inpex, Nippo

<ul>
<li>Toshiba’s plan to split itself into three units was, as we suggested, decidedly underwhelming.</li>
<li>There was also no update on the search for a new CEO/Chairman.</li>
<li>If this is how badly management is struggling they should have just mentioned metaverse five or ten times to “unlock value”.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba’s plan to split itself into three units was, as we suggested, decidedly underwhelming.
There was also no update on the search for a new CEO/Chairman.
If this is how badly management is struggling they should have just mentioned metaverse five or ten times to “unlock value”.


Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba – Processing Things After Speaking to the Company

After speaking to Toshiba we came away more encouraged about the core business but believe real buying will not come in until there is more clarity...

Mio Kato

Stock Ideas From Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look into Fuel Cells

Fuel cells have a place in the green energy market but with poor economics, they have a problem finding where that is. Japanese automakers...

Pyari Menon

Toshiba Strategic Review - Bold and Unexciting, Promising But Not.. Doesn't Solve the Problem

Toshiba Strategic Review is done. The proposal is to split the company into three. It is good "corporate structuring" and tax planning. But it may...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, Sydney Airports, SPH, SingTel, Oil Search, Japex/Inpex, Nippo

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba – Damp Squib Is Damp

Toshiba’s plan to split itself into three units was, as we suggested, decidedly underwhelming and we feel it is probably time to step away.

Mio Kato

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