Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.</li>
<li>The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. </li>
<li>Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.
The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. 
Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. 


Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Toshiba bull trend remains intact with buy support at 5,200/300 above the 5,000 bull/bear pivot. Macro PT remains at 6,500.</li>
<li>RSI buy support to gel with the price buy zone. Sell volumes on the pullback have been tepid in line with a correction.</li>
<li>5,000 breakout point is the bull/bear inflection point and the more aggressive buy zone (low odds of being met).</li>
</ul>


Toshiba bull trend remains intact with buy support at 5,200/300 above the 5,000 bull/bear pivot. Macro PT remains at 6,500.
RSI buy support to gel with the price buy zone. Sell volumes on the pullback have been tepid in line with a correction.
5,000 breakout point is the bull/bear inflection point and the more aggressive buy zone (low odds of being met).


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Aaaaand staying public is apparently an option again according to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toshiba-ceo-says-staying-public-120000447.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CEO Shimada’s interview with Bloomberg</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB00370844665552474099904588590160168433692" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shimada has also said that he wants any buyer to keep Toshiba whole</a> limiting some of the levers a PE fund could potentially pull. </li>
<li>With the company’s EV/EBIT multiple of 13.7x now significantly above peers such as Hitachi’s 11.3x prospects for a hefty premium seem weak.</li>
</ul>


Aaaaand staying public is apparently an option again according to CEO Shimada’s interview with Bloomberg. 

Shimada has also said that he wants any buyer to keep Toshiba whole limiting some of the levers a PE fund could potentially pull. 
With the company’s EV/EBIT multiple of 13.7x now significantly above peers such as Hitachi’s 11.3x prospects for a hefty premium seem weak.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 12th Jun 2022.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 12th Jun 2022.


Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry Now, Before 20% Is Released Later in the Year

<ul>
<li>The days since Toshiba’s last briefing session have been eventful with METI expressing concern about foreign investor control and a split emerging in the board over director nominations. </li>
<li>These developments create significant risk of activist-friendly director candidates being vetoed in our view. </li>
<li>Toshiba stock has been trading in line with Hitachi’s strong performance of late despite being more expensive and thus risk has increased.</li>
</ul>


The days since Toshiba’s last briefing session have been eventful with METI expressing concern about foreign investor control and a split emerging in the board over director nominations. 
These developments create significant risk of activist-friendly director candidates being vetoed in our view. 
Toshiba stock has been trading in line with Hitachi’s strong performance of late despite being more expensive and thus risk has increased.


Toshiba – Surprise, Surprise, More Drama

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

Weak earnings/forecasts and 3yr highs vs Peers make Toshiba's relative valuation un-compelling. Lack of near-term news means on a risk-on rebound,...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Fresh Buy Zone

Toshiba bull trend remains intact with buy support at 5,200/300 above the 5,000 bull/bear pivot. Macro PT remains at 6,500.

Thomas Schroeder

Toshiba – Push Me Pull Me

More worrying signs for the buyout probability on Toshiba as CEO Shimada says staying public is an option and says Toshiba should not be split up...

Mio Kato

Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry Now, Before 20% Is Released Later in the Year

Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021. The lockup on one set of...

Sumeet Singh

Toshiba – Surprise, Surprise, More Drama

Developing and public fractures in Toshiba's board create significant risk of activist-friendly director candidates being vetoed in our view.

Mio Kato

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