Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: Thoma Bravo's tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/net-marketing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26092:1" rel="noopener">Net Marketing (6175 JP)</a>'s MBO. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed this week: Thoma Bravo's tilt for Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU); Net Marketing (6175 JP)'s MBO. 
Key updates took place for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP), Tassal (TGR AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), and Giordano International (709 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Fraser Hospitality, Nearmap, Net Marketing, Tassal, Genex

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toshiba reported 1Q results today missing at both the revenue and OP lines. </li>
<li>While revenue was barely above consensus the company generate a ¥4.8bn operating loss rather than the ¥22bn OP consensus was projecting. </li>
<li>1Q is seasonally weak so the loss itself would not be concerning except for how widespread deterioration was.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba reported 1Q results today missing at both the revenue and OP lines. 
While revenue was barely above consensus the company generate a ¥4.8bn operating loss rather than the ¥22bn OP consensus was projecting. 
1Q is seasonally weak so the loss itself would not be concerning except for how widespread deterioration was.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the September rebalance of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.
The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma. The Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> ; and the off-market takeover for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-unity-office-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24077:1" rel="noopener">Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma. The Scheme for Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) ; and the off-market takeover for MACA Ltd (MLD AU).
Key updates took place for: Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) and Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Genex, MACA, Australian Unity Office, Mapletree Commercial

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a>'s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone's deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 

Soho China (410 HK)'s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone's deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Fraser Hospitality, Nearmap, Net Marketing, Tassal, Genex

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba – Little Good News

Toshiba reported 1Q results today missing at both the revenue and OP lines. 1Q is seasonally weak so the loss itself would not be concerning except...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

The market consultation conclusion were confirmed last week. We expect 3 changes to the index in September and another 3 in March. The adds/deletes...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Genex, MACA, Australian Unity Office, Mapletree Commercial

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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