Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As mentioned yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-6502-funding-definitely-probably-now-secured-next-steps-and-risks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and more clearly by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toshiba-good-news" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:95267" rel="noopener">Toshiba – Good News?</a>, the Nikkei was strangely silent over the fact that loan details were agreed. </li>
<li>The Nikkei comes out with a surprise <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC038JT0T00C23A2000000/?n_cid=SNSTW001" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> this morning saying they hear the Commitment Letter has been handed over. It also says the "Final Bid" is "about ¥2trln."</li>
<li>Toshiba shares quickly reacted badly quickly. The article deserves parsing and I try to clarify the arguments.</li>
</ul>


As mentioned yesterday here and more clearly by Mio Kato in Toshiba – Good News?, the Nikkei was strangely silent over the fact that loan details were agreed. 
The Nikkei comes out with a surprise article this morning saying they hear the Commitment Letter has been handed over. It also says the "Final Bid" is "about ¥2trln."
Toshiba shares quickly reacted badly quickly. The article deserves parsing and I try to clarify the arguments.


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>So JIP appears to have finally secured funding for its tortured Toshiba bid. </li>
<li>The market is reacting positively and we think this is reasonable but the real question is whether Toshiba management will be amenable to the new terms of JIP’s deal. </li>
<li>In our view, there are certain quirks regarding recent news flow which point to a potential answer to that question.</li>
</ul>


So JIP appears to have finally secured funding for its tortured Toshiba bid. 
The market is reacting positively and we think this is reasonable but the real question is whether Toshiba management will be amenable to the new terms of JIP’s deal. 
In our view, there are certain quirks regarding recent news flow which point to a potential answer to that question.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!
DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..


Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

<ul>
<li>On 31 January, the expected "deadline" for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.</li>
<li>Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.</li>
<li>That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.</li>
</ul>


On 31 January, the expected "deadline" for a bank loan agreement with the JIP Consortium bidding for Toshiba, we got news that commitment confirmation would be extended to 3 February.
Every other time we got a deadline extension, we got an article. On 3-6 Feb, we got no article, suggesting we were close. Today, a Bloomberg article says terms agreed.
That gets us over the biggest hump. Now we have to look at possible next steps and timing.


Toshiba (6502) - Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured - Next Steps and Risks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ)</a> launches a US$600 million IDX IPO and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hesai-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36743:1" rel="noopener">Hesai Group (HSAI US)</a> launches a US$171 million Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Electric (6641 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techno-associe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3893:1" rel="noopener">Techno Associe (8249 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) launches a US$600 million IDX IPO and Hesai Group (HSAI US) launches a US$171 million Nasdaq IPO.
Event-Driven developments Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Nissin Electric (6641 JP), Techno Associe (8249 JP), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), O2Micro International (OIIM US). 


Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) - Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502) - Whoop! There It Is!

Toshiba (6502) saw "Funds Secured" but the Nikkei was curiously silent for 36hrs. Now they come with the zinger that the price could be "about...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Good News?

We question whether JIP securing funding commitments from banks is truly the end of the drama for Toshiba as there are a few curiosities...

Mio Kato

Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

NKY indicated flate; Inbound headwinds as China exludes Japan from Group tours; Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Definitely Probably Now Secured - Next Steps and Risks

Multiple articles indicate Banks and JIP have agreed on terms so Banks can issue a Funding Commitment Letter for JIP's takeover proposal of...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Feb) - Pertamina Geothermal, Hesai, Halcyon, Toshiba, Pushpay, O2Micro

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Nissin Electric, Techno Associe, Toshiba, Halcyon, O2Micro, Elmo, Nitro, Pushpay,...

Arun George

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