Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India (GAIL IN)</a> to Invest Rs 60,000 Crore in Ethane Cracker Project in Madhya Pradesh.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzlon-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1073:1" rel="noopener">Suzlon Energy (SUEL IN)</a> Director Resigns Citing Governance Concerns in his letter</li>
<li>Masdar, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14949:1" rel="noopener">JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/torrent-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17884:1" rel="noopener">Torrent Power (TPW IN)</a> , and More Eye Enel's Indian Assets</li>
</ul>



Gail India (GAIL IN) to Invest Rs 60,000 Crore in Ethane Cracker Project in Madhya Pradesh.

Suzlon Energy (SUEL IN) Director Resigns Citing Governance Concerns in his letter
Masdar, JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN), Torrent Power (TPW IN) , and More Eye Enel's Indian Assets


#11 India Insight: GAIL 60000Cr Project, Paytm Layoff, Suzlon CG Issues, Axiscades Drone Order

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With a week left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-grid-corporation-of-india-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12621:1" rel="noopener">Power Grid Corporation Of India (PWGR IN)</a> in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index in June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 6.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 2.3bn.</li>
<li>The flows on the stocks are not very large but there will be same side and offsetting flows from other index trackers at the same time.</li>
</ul>


With a week left in the review period, Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) could replace Power Grid Corporation Of India (PWGR IN) in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index in June.
Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 6.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 2.3bn.
The flows on the stocks are not very large but there will be same side and offsetting flows from other index trackers at the same time.


NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Bharti Could Replace Power Grid

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered robust Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 36.5/5.5/4.4bn, beating our estimate by 0/32/43%</li><li>The EBITDA margin expanded both annually and sequentially by 482bps and 422bps resp</li><li>This expansion was on account of lower commodity inflation/better mix (+135bps YoY gross margin), improving supply chain and operating leverage advantage</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered robust Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 36.5/5.5/4.4bn, beating our estimate by 0/32/43%The EBITDA margin expanded both annually and sequentially by 482bps and 422bps respThis expansion was on account of lower commodity inflation/better mix (+135bps YoY gross margin), improving supply chain and operating leverage advantageContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens, Eicher Motors, Bharat Forge, Torrent Power

India

Torrent Power Limited generates, transmits and distributes power. The Company also implements large power projects in India.

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Torrent Power (TPW IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

#11 India Insight: GAIL 60000Cr Project, Paytm Layoff, Suzlon CG Issues, Axiscades Drone Order

Gail India to invest Rs 60,000 crore in ethane cracker project, Suzlon Energy director resigns over governance concerns, Masdar, JSW Energy,...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Bharti Could Replace Power Grid

Bharti Airtel could replace Power Grid in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index in June. Constituent, volatility and capping changes result in 1-way...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens, Eicher Motors, Bharat Forge, Torrent Power

Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered robust Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 36.5/5.5/4.4bn, beating our estimate by 0/32/43%

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

#11 India Insight: GAIL 60000Cr Project, Paytm Layoff, Suzlon CG Issues, Axiscades Drone Order

​Gail India to invest Rs 60,000 crore in ethane cracker project, Suzlon Energy director resigns over governance concerns, Masdar, JSW Energy,...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Bharti Could Replace Power Grid

Bharti Airtel could replace Power Grid in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index in June. Constituent, volatility and capping changes result in 1-way...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens, Eicher Motors, Bharat Forge, Torrent Power

Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered robust Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 36.5/5.5/4.4bn, beating our estimate by 0/32/43%

HDFC Securities

Gail India to invest Rs 60,000 crore in ethane cracker project, Suzlon Energy director resigns over governance concerns, Masdar, JSW Energy,...