Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotus-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20568:1" rel="noopener">Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)</a> ended 2022 on a strong note. Full-year 2022 revenue grew 15.7% YoY to NT$14.6B. 2022 was the third consecutive year that Lotus achieved double-digit annual growth.</li>
<li>The export markets outside of Asia grew 28% YoY, largely contributed by the launch of multiple myeloma drug lenalidomide in a number of markets around the world, including the U.S.</li>
<li>In December, Lotus took over the Eli Lily’s Alimta business in Taiwan for $62M. Alimta is a first-line treatment for NSCLC with high brand loyalty.</li>
</ul>



Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT) ended 2022 on a strong note. Full-year 2022 revenue grew 15.7% YoY to NT$14.6B. 2022 was the third consecutive year that Lotus achieved double-digit annual growth.
The export markets outside of Asia grew 28% YoY, largely contributed by the launch of multiple myeloma drug lenalidomide in a number of markets around the world, including the U.S.
In December, Lotus took over the Eli Lily’s Alimta business in Taiwan for $62M. Alimta is a first-line treatment for NSCLC with high brand loyalty.


Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): 2022 Ends with Mid-Teen Revenue Growth; Further Steam Still Left

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a>, India’s fourth largest pharmaceutical company, has filed DRHP for INR55B IPO, which is comprised of an OFS of 40M shares by promoters and existing investors.  </li>
<li>Mankind has 36 pharma brands that have each achieved annual revenue of more than INR500M. 18 of its brands are among 300 top selling brands of the Indian pharma market.</li>
<li>During FY20–22, domestic sales of Mankind had a CAGR of ~16%, which is ~1.5 times that of the Indian pharma market, which grew at a CAGR of ~11%.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN), India’s fourth largest pharmaceutical company, has filed DRHP for INR55B IPO, which is comprised of an OFS of 40M shares by promoters and existing investors.  
Mankind has 36 pharma brands that have each achieved annual revenue of more than INR500M. 18 of its brands are among 300 top selling brands of the Indian pharma market.
During FY20–22, domestic sales of Mankind had a CAGR of ~16%, which is ~1.5 times that of the Indian pharma market, which grew at a CAGR of ~11%.


Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) Pre-IPO: Solid India-Centric Growth Story Fueled by Marquee Brands

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.</li>
<li>Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.</li>
<li>For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.</li>
</ul>


As we are heading into 2023, let us look back on the performance of some of our global healthcare stocks recommended throughout 2022.
Four stocks on which I am bullish, generated more than 50% return since their recommendations. 10 stocks on which I am bearish plunged more than 20%.
For 2023, investors should continue to focus on established healthcare companies, having strong and flexible balance sheet with muti-year revenue visibility.


2022 in Rear Mirror View: Top Performers From My Global Healthcare Coverage Universe

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> in December to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT)</a> while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger should see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> prior to the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will be added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) in December to replace Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN).
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 2.3x ADV (7.2x delivery volume) on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT) while selling 5x ADV (10.5x delivery volume) on Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD). 
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) / HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger should see Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) prior to the June rebalance.


SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

India

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. manufactures bulk drugs and pharmaceutical formulations. The Company's formulations include cardio-vascular, psychotropic and anti-biotic drugs while its bulk drugs include atenolol, ciprofloxacin and norfloxacin. Torrent Pharmaceuticals has wholly owned subsidiaries in several regulated and less regulated international markets.

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Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN)

Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): 2022 Ends with Mid-Teen Revenue Growth; Further Steam Still Left

Driven by lenalidomide launch in US, 2022 revenue grew 16%, marking 3rd consecutive year of double-digit growth. New product introduction and...

Tina Banerjee

Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) Pre-IPO: Solid India-Centric Growth Story Fueled by Marquee Brands

Mankind Pharma has filed for INR55B IPO, which can be the second largest among Indian healthcare companies. Strong brand positioning is the key...

Tina Banerjee

2022 in Rear Mirror View: Top Performers From My Global Healthcare Coverage Universe

From my coverage universe, two Taiwanese stocks generated 59% and 71% returns in nearly six months. New product launch and geography expansion are...

Tina Banerjee

SENSEX Dec 22 Index Rebalance: Tata Motors (TTMT) To Replace Dr Reddy (DRRD)

Tata Motors will replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the Dec rebal. Passives will need to buy 7.2x delivery vol on TTMT; sell 10.5x on DRRD. Adani...

Brian Freitas

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

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