HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> achieved a decent 3Q23 with sales performance of major brands outperformed. With a low comparison base, 4Q23 sales will be even more impressive. </li>
<li>Indications are that sales for the Golden Week are satisfactory and "double-11" sales are optimistic. The acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE will further add to its product portfolio.</li>
<li>Amer's IPO is another catalyst and reports are that this has been filed in the US. Anta Sports' stake may be valued at US$4bn, almost 12% of its market cap.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) achieved a decent 3Q23 with sales performance of major brands outperformed. With a low comparison base, 4Q23 sales will be even more impressive. 
Indications are that sales for the Golden Week are satisfactory and "double-11" sales are optimistic. The acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE will further add to its product portfolio.
Amer's IPO is another catalyst and reports are that this has been filed in the US. Anta Sports' stake may be valued at US$4bn, almost 12% of its market cap.


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Bucking the Challenging Trend

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Topsports International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We initiate BUY on Topsports with TP based on 18x FY2/25E P/E and put it as our sector top pick.</li><li>We forecast 12%/ 20% of sales/ NP CAGR in FY2/23-26E vs -5%/ -4% during FY2/19-23, driven by major improvements in: 1) international brand sales (Nike to maintain its leadership and Adidas to see turnaround with effective strategy in China),</li><li>2) sales per store (driven by higher sales per sq. and increase in store size) and 3) the associated operating leverage.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We initiate BUY on Topsports with TP based on 18x FY2/25E P/E and put it as our sector top pick.We forecast 12%/ 20% of sales/ NP CAGR in FY2/23-26E vs -5%/ -4% during FY2/19-23, driven by major improvements in: 1) international brand sales (Nike to maintain its leadership and Adidas to see turnaround with effective strategy in China),2) sales per store (driven by higher sales per sq. and increase in store size) and 3) the associated operating leverage.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topsports (6110 HK) – Localization and Efficiency-Led Turnaround

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>On one hand, retail sales growth in 5-1 Golden Week was a beat (after a soft Feb-Mar and an inline Apr).</li><li>On the other hand, retail discounts surprisingly widened due to increased competition from the de-stocking by brands like Adidas and Li Ning.</li><li>While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes on the end demand and intensity of competition. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

On one hand, retail sales growth in 5-1 Golden Week was a beat (after a soft Feb-Mar and an inline Apr).On the other hand, retail discounts surprisingly widened due to increased competition from the de-stocking by brands like Adidas and Li Ning.While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes on the end demand and intensity of competition. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

<ul>
<li>The new share placement of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.</li>
<li>With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. </li>
<li>An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta's 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. </li>
</ul>


The new share placement of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.
With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. 
An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta's 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. 


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Anta Sports Products / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. </li>
<li>Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it's looking to raise, furthermore, it's already net cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. 
Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it's looking to raise, furthermore, it's already net cash.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Anta Sports Placement - A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

China

Topsports International Holdings Limited operates as a sports shoes and apparel retailer. The Company sells sports shoes, sports shirts, and other products. Topsports International Holdings markets its products throughout China.

Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)

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Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Bucking the Challenging Trend

Anta Sports had a solid 3Q23, with major brand sales outperforming. 4Q23 sales are expected to be even better. Acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Topsports (6110 HK) – Localization and Efficiency-Led Turnaround

We forecast 12%/ 20% of sales/ NP CAGR in FY2/23-26E vs -5%/ -4% during FY2/19-23, driven by major improvements in: 1) international brand sales

CMB International

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes...

CMB International

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

With proceeds to be used for debt repayment, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook long-term benefits. News flow...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports Placement - A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Bucking the Challenging Trend

​Anta Sports had a solid 3Q23, with major brand sales outperforming. 4Q23 sales are expected to be even better. Acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Topsports (6110 HK) – Localization and Efficiency-Led Turnaround

We forecast 12%/ 20% of sales/ NP CAGR in FY2/23-26E vs -5%/ -4% during FY2/19-23, driven by major improvements in: 1) international brand sales

CMB International

China Sportswear Sector – 5-1 sales beat but competition intensified

While fundamentals (sales, discounts and inventory) are trending good into 2H23E and setting up for a decent FY24E, we should still keep our eyes...

CMB International

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

With proceeds to be used for debt repayment, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook long-term benefits. News flow...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports Placement - A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the...

Sumeet Singh

Anta Sports had a solid 3Q23, with major brand sales outperforming. 4Q23 sales are expected to be even better. Acquisition of MAIA ACTIVE and...