Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jpx-nikkei-400-rebalance-2018-edition" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23054">JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance - 2018 Edition</a> a bit over two weeks ago, the traditional JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance events are not great trades unto themselves when taken from day before announcement through the rebalance event itself. They are usually much better longs in the year before announcement, and better fades in the two months after the rebalance. This year was no different in the run-up, and I see no reason to expect much different on the back end except for the remarkable sector rotation this year.</p><p>The <em>Effective Date</em> of Periodic Review changes is 31 August so the trading event is 30 August at the close.</p><p>The long/short performance (red line) of the event is tracking very closely to the average of the last four years (the dotted black line). </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/062/038/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-08-29%20at%208.17.20%20PM.png?1535545105" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="62038"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">data source: capitalIQ</div><p></p><p><em>Interestingly</em>, this year volumes are running below 90d averages for 16 of the 26 inclusions and 19 out of 25 of the exclusions so for 70% of the names, there has been no excess volume. And only one of the top 5 inclusions by dollar value has seen excess volume meet expected passive buyer demand.</p><p>Some names will see some large volume tomorrow.</p>

As discussed in JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance - 2018 Edition a bit over two weeks ago, the traditional JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance events are not great trades unto themselves when taken from day before announcement through the rebalance event itself. They are usually much better longs in the year before announcement, and better fades in the two months after the rebalance. This year was no different in the run-up, and I see no reason to expect much different on the back end except for the remarkable sector rotation this year.The Effective Date of Periodic Review changes is 31 August so the trading event is 30 August at the close.The long/short performance (red line) of the event is tracking very closely to the average of the last four years (the dotted black line). data source: capitalIQInterestingly, this year volumes are running below 90d averages for 16 of the 26 inclusions and 19 out of 25 of the exclusions so for 70% of the names, there has been no excess volume. And only one of the top 5 inclusions by dollar value has seen excess volume meet expected passive buyer demand.Some names will see some large volume tomorrow.

JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance Event 30 Aug - Volumes Low So Far On Many Names

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>With only 2 weeks left in August, we wanted to highlight names that you should be looking at heading into the next couple of months to the end of the year. We screened for names that 1- have a success rate since 2000 greater than 70%. 2- median return relative to TOPIX is greater than 5.5%.</p><h2>Screen Results</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/031/654/original/2.png?1502826967" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="31654"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12795" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12795:1">Yokogawa Electric Corp (6841 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14085" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1">Sapporo Holdings Ltd (2501 JP)</a> have been up 88% of the time. That means in the 17 years they have only been down twice relative to…</p>

With only 2 weeks left in August, we wanted to highlight names that you should be looking at heading into the next couple of months to the end of the year. We screened for names that 1- have a success rate since 2000 greater than 70%. 2- median return relative to TOPIX is greater than 5.5%.Screen ResultsSource: Custom ProductsBoth Yokogawa Electric Corp (6841 JP) and Sapporo Holdings Ltd (2501 JP) have been up 88% of the time. That means in the 17 years they have only been down twice relative to…

Which Names Do the Best from September to the End of the Year....

Japan

Topre Corporation manufactures pressed products for automobile parts. The Company also produces refrigerated trucks and warehouses and parts for copy machines and facsimiles.

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Topre Corp (5975 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance Event 30 Aug - Volumes Low So Far On Many Names

As discussed in JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance - 2018 Edition a bit over two weeks ago, the traditional JPX Nikkei 400 Rebalance events are not great...

Travis Lundy

Which Names Do the Best from September to the End of the Year....

With only 2 weeks left in August, we wanted to highlight names that you should be looking at heading into the next couple of months to the end of...

Custom Products Group

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