Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>JPY sensitive names and foreigner favourites are unlikely to be the next driver of the market.</li>
<li>Sectors not dependent on a weak Japanese Yen are more likely to be the next winners</li>
<li>While individual stocks will still benefit from corporate governance reforms, a rising tide will not lift all boats as it has done over the last 18 months</li>
</ul>


JPY sensitive names and foreigner favourites are unlikely to be the next driver of the market.
Sectors not dependent on a weak Japanese Yen are more likely to be the next winners
While individual stocks will still benefit from corporate governance reforms, a rising tide will not lift all boats as it has done over the last 18 months


Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket's Next Phase

<ul>
<li>The main Japanese indices have been moving sideways this year</li>
<li>Continued weakness in the JPY has diminished returns in USD terms</li>
<li>Technically the market has similar weak underlying breadth as the US market</li>
</ul>


The main Japanese indices have been moving sideways this year
Continued weakness in the JPY has diminished returns in USD terms
Technically the market has similar weak underlying breadth as the US market


Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The JGB  market is doing the BoJ’s work for it</li>
<li>Japanese financials will continue to perform in this market environment</li>
<li>US bonds follow the same pattern as inflation and bond issuance rises</li>
</ul>


The JGB  market is doing the BoJ’s work for it
Japanese financials will continue to perform in this market environment
US bonds follow the same pattern as inflation and bond issuance rises


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place</li>
<li>The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates</li>
<li>Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place
The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates
Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again


<ul>
<li>Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.</li>
<li>Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.</li>
<li>US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?</li>
</ul>


Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.
Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.
US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?


Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Japan

TOPIX-Banks Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the banks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is one of the 33 industry sectors of the TOPIX Index (TPX). The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 6, 1992. The parent index is TPX.

TOPIX Banks Index (TPNBNK INDEX)

Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket's Next Phase

JPY sensitive names and foreigner favorites may not drive the market; sectors independent of a weak Yen could be the next winners.

Rikki Malik

Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.

Rikki Malik

Banks Prefer Bonds

Japanese bond market doing the BoJ's job, leading to strong performance for Japanese financials, while US bonds also face inflation and excess...

Rikki Malik

Whither the Yen?

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket's Next Phase

​JPY sensitive names and foreigner favorites may not drive the market; sectors independent of a weak Yen could be the next winners.

Rikki Malik

Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

​Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.

Rikki Malik

Banks Prefer Bonds

​Japanese bond market doing the BoJ's job, leading to strong performance for Japanese financials, while US bonds also face inflation and excess...

Rikki Malik

Whither the Yen?

​The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

​Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

JPY sensitive names and foreigner favorites may not drive the market; sectors independent of a weak Yen could be the next winners.

Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.

Japanese bond market doing the BoJ's job, leading to strong performance for Japanese financials, while US bonds also face inflation and excess...

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...