Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> December rebalance complete, there could be 10 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.24-7.3 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.5-6.4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> early in the review period, but there has been a small downward drift over the last 4 months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) December rebalance complete, there could be 10 changes at the review.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.24-7.3 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.5-6.4 days of ADV.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index early in the review period, but there has been a small downward drift over the last 4 months.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side and Some Close Names

<ul>
<li>There are 17 inclusions and 17 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance to be implemented at the close on 14 December.</li>
<li>While most of the inclusions were expected, there are many differences on the deletes. Trading the strategy becomes tougher with the short sell ban in place.</li>
<li>The adds have started to outperform the deletes over the last month and there could be more movement over the next 3 weeks to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There are 17 inclusions and 17 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance to be implemented at the close on 14 December.
While most of the inclusions were expected, there are many differences on the deletes. Trading the strategy becomes tougher with the short sell ban in place.
The adds have started to outperform the deletes over the last month and there could be more movement over the next 3 weeks to implementation.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Many Surprises

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Korea Exchange announced KOSPI 200 rebalance additions and deletions today. There were 14 new additions and deletions (7 each).</li>
<li>Some surprises in KOSPI 200 rebalance included addition of Seah Besteel and deletion of HDC Hyundai Development. </li>
<li>There were a lot more additions and deletions in KOSDAQ 150 (34 total additions and deletions). Among the KOSDAQ 150 additions included Neowiz, JNTC, Lunit, and Jeio.</li>
</ul>


Korea Exchange announced KOSPI 200 rebalance additions and deletions today. There were 14 new additions and deletions (7 each).
Some surprises in KOSPI 200 rebalance included addition of Seah Besteel and deletion of HDC Hyundai Development. 
There were a lot more additions and deletions in KOSDAQ 150 (34 total additions and deletions). Among the KOSDAQ 150 additions included Neowiz, JNTC, Lunit, and Jeio.


KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Additions and Deletions Announced (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in October 2023, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 43 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in October and could underperform relative to the market.</li>
<li>Among these 45 stocks, top five market cap stocks include Fadu, Ottogi Corporation, CanariaBio,  Top Material, and PhilEnergy.  </li>
</ul>


We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in October 2023, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 43 are in KOSDAQ.
These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in October and could underperform relative to the market.
Among these 45 stocks, top five market cap stocks include Fadu, Ottogi Corporation, CanariaBio,  Top Material, and PhilEnergy.  


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in October 2023

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Top Material (360070 KS) is a target price of 37,965 won per share, which is 33% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Given the solid upside, we have a Positive view of the IPO. Our base case valuation is based on 25.6x P/E using our estimated net profit in 2022. </li>
<li>We estimate the company to generate sales of 73.7 billion won (up 131.1% YoY) and operating profit of 14.1 billion won (up 190.3% YoY) in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Top Material (360070 KS) is a target price of 37,965 won per share, which is 33% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range. 
Given the solid upside, we have a Positive view of the IPO. Our base case valuation is based on 25.6x P/E using our estimated net profit in 2022. 
We estimate the company to generate sales of 73.7 billion won (up 131.1% YoY) and operating profit of 14.1 billion won (up 190.3% YoY) in 2022.


South Korea

Top Material Co., Ltd. operates battery manufacturing businesses. The Company produces lithium batteries and other products. Top Material conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Top Material (360070 KS)

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side and Some Close Names

We forecast 10 changes a side for the index in December. There are names that are close to market cap/liquidity thresholds. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Many Surprises

There are 17 changes a side for the KOSDAQ150 in Dec. Most of the inclusions were on expected lines, but there are many difference among the...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Additions and Deletions Announced (December 2023)

Korea Exchange announced KOSPI 200 rebalance additions and deletions today. There were 14 new additions and deletions (7 each). There were a lot...

Douglas Kim

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 45 Companies in Korea in October 2023

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in October 2023, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 43 are in KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

Top Material IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Top Material (360070 KS) is a target price of 37,965 won per share, which is 33% higher than the mid-point of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

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