Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

International Games System / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-games-system-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3486:1" rel="noopener">International Games System (3293 TT)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>The big rally in the stock has led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-games-system-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3486:1" rel="noopener">International Games System (3293 TT)</a> trading expensive to its regional peers.</li>
<li>There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume over the last month. But there could still be more to go over the next week.</li>
</ul>



International Games System (3293 TT) could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
The big rally in the stock has led to International Games System (3293 TT) trading expensive to its regional peers.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume over the last month. But there could still be more to go over the next week.


International Games System (3293 TT): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Pop Mart International Group L / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and <a href="http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1062357/ipo-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened 82% higher</a> at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45956" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. </p></div></div></div>

POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Pop Mart will commence trading on Friday, 11 December. Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market and last stood at $70.00.In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that IPO price range is attractive.Our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$43.06 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price continues to provide good upside potential. 

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$31.50-38.50 per share, Pop Mart will have a market cap of HK$43,519.8-53,190.8 million ($5.6-6.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.</p></div></div></div>

POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$31.50-38.50 per share, Pop Mart will have a market cap of HK$43,519.8-53,190.8 million ($5.6-6.9 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range.

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">POP MART (POP HK)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. “Pop Mart” has become the most popular pop toy brand in China. Pop Mart is seeking to raise $600 million (double the original $200-300 million target) at a $7 billion valuation, according to Reuters. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-initiation-state-of-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42200" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO Initiation: State of Play</a>, we stated that setting aside the short-term negative impact due to COVID-19, Pop Mart presents a unique opportunity to gain exposure to China’s pop toy retailing market. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pop-mart-international-ipo-creditable-performance-in-tough-times" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45653" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times</a> we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In this note, we take a first look at Pop Mart's valuation. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.</p></div>
</div>


POP MART (POP HK) is the largest and fastest-growing pop toy company in China, as measured by revenue in 2019 and revenue growth from 2017 to 2019, respectively, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. “Pop Mart” has become the most popular pop toy brand in China. Pop Mart is seeking to raise $600 million (double the original $200-300 million target) at a $7 billion valuation, according to Reuters. 
In Pop Mart International IPO Initiation: State of Play, we stated that setting aside the short-term negative impact due to COVID-19, Pop Mart presents a unique opportunity to gain exposure to China’s pop toy retailing market. In Pop Mart International IPO: Creditable Performance in Tough Times we noted that the 1H20 results demonstrate that Pop Mart has navigated a tough trading environment by delivering creditable growth and margin. In this note, we take a first look at Pop Mart's valuation. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.


Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation First Look

Japan

TOMY COMPANY, LTD. designs and manufactures a wide variety of toys and hobby goods.  The Company's product line includes video game software, character goods, gift items, and toys for infants.  The Company specializes in designing and marketing its toys while assigning production to domestic and foreign subsidiaries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tomy Company (7867 JP)

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

International Games System (3293 TT): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to IGS being added to passive portfolios at the end of Nov. There is a fair bit of positioning, but the stock...

Brian Freitas

Pop Mart International IPO: Trading Debut

Pop Mart priced its IPO at HK$38.50 and opened 82% higher at HK$70.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price...

Arun George

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation Insights

At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$4,568.8 million ($589 million). Overall, we would participate in the IPO due...

Arun George

Pop Mart International IPO: Valuation First Look

Pop Mart is seeking to raise $600 million (double the original $200-300 million target) at a $7 billion valuation, according to Reuters. We think...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)