Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Toll Brothers, a recognized leader in luxury homebuilding, reported an impressive performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, surpassing its previous expectations.</li><li>The company delivered 2,641 homes at an average price of approximately $1 million, which collectively generated a record-breaking $2.65 billion in home sales revenues, marking a 6% year-over-year increase.</li><li>Additionally, Toll Brothers signed 3,041 net agreements amounting to $2.94 billion, reflecting robust growth of 30% in units and 29% in total value compared to the prior year.</li></ul>

Toll Brothers, a recognized leader in luxury homebuilding, reported an impressive performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, surpassing its previous expectations.The company delivered 2,641 homes at an average price of approximately $1 million, which collectively generated a record-breaking $2.65 billion in home sales revenues, marking a 6% year-over-year increase.Additionally, Toll Brothers signed 3,041 net agreements amounting to $2.94 billion, reflecting robust growth of 30% in units and 29% in total value compared to the prior year.

Toll Brothers: Community Count Growth & Land Acquisitions & Other Major Drivers

<ul><li>This is our first report on Toll Brothers.</li><li>The company recorded a strong performance for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2023, despite challenges such as high mortgage rates, global unrest, and fears of a recession, delivering 2,755 homes and yielding $2.95 billion in home sales revenues.</li><li>Similarly, for the full year, the company delivered 9,597 homes at an average price of around $1.03 million, bringing the total homebuilding revenues to a record $9.9 billion.</li></ul>

This is our first report on Toll Brothers.The company recorded a strong performance for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2023, despite challenges such as high mortgage rates, global unrest, and fears of a recession, delivering 2,755 homes and yielding $2.95 billion in home sales revenues.Similarly, for the full year, the company delivered 9,597 homes at an average price of around $1.03 million, bringing the total homebuilding revenues to a record $9.9 billion.

Toll Brothers: Initiation of Coverage - How Their Innovative Community Expansion Is Set to Dominate the Market in 2024! - Major Drivers

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The ITB US Home Construction ETF is now up 33% YTD and represents one of the biggest market surprises for me so far in 2023.</li>
<li>This group has flashed relative strength vs. the S&amp;P 500 since December 2022 and continues to one of the top performing groups.</li>
<li>After undergoing correction in 2022, the homebuilders sector has tons of weekly charts breaking out of long and healthy weekly bases in strong uptrends</li>
</ul>


The ITB US Home Construction ETF is now up 33% YTD and represents one of the biggest market surprises for me so far in 2023.
This group has flashed relative strength vs. the S&amp;P 500 since December 2022 and continues to one of the top performing groups.
After undergoing correction in 2022, the homebuilders sector has tons of weekly charts breaking out of long and healthy weekly bases in strong uptrends


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)</li>
<li>If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.</li>
</ul>


The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market.
Key supports: 4545 on S&amp;P 500, $383 on NDX (QQQ), $208 on Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on MicroCaps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), $54 on MSCI ACWI exUS (ACWX)
If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

United States

Mohawk Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets flooring for residential and commercial applications.  The Company offers carpet, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone, vinyl, and rugs.  Mohawk markets residential and commercial flooring in the United States, and residential flooring in Europe.

Taylor Morrison Home Corp is a homebuilder in North America.  The Company builds single-family detached and attached homes and develop land, which includes lifestyle and master planned communities.

Installed Building Products Inc installs residential insulation in the United States.  The Company also installs complementary building products, including garage doors, rain gutters, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors.

Tempur Sealy International Inc., through its primary subsidiary manufactures and markets foam mattresses, pillows, and miscellaneous products under its own and other brand names.

TopBuild Corp. provides insulation installation services. The Company offers residential insulation products and related accessories. TopBuild serves customers in the United States.

Meritage Homes Corporation designs, builds, and sells single-family homes ranging from entry level to semi-custom luxury.  The Company operates in the South and West of the United States.

Whirlpool Corporation manufactures and markets major home appliances.  The Company's principal products include laundry appliances, refrigeration and room air conditioning equipment, cooking appliances, dishwashers, and mixers and other small household appliances.  Whirlpool's products are sold worldwide

TRI Pointe Group, Inc. provides construction services. The Company designs, builds, develops, and constructs residential homes. TRI Pointe Homes serves customers throughout the United States.

Green Brick Partners, Inc. invests in a range of real estate investments. The Company develops residential homes, complexes and residential communities.

M/I Homes, Inc. builds single-family homes that are marketed and sold under the M/I Homes and Showcase Homes trade names.  M/I Homes has homebuilding operations in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland.

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, car navigation systems, digital devices, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associated companies around the world.

Sekisui House, Ltd. builds and sells steel-frame and wooden housings. The Company constructs single-family houses, condominiums, and apartment buildings.  Sekisui House also operates real estate brokerage and leasing businesses.  Additionally, the Company sells construction materials.

LG Electronics Inc. manufactures and markets digital display equipment and home appliances. The Company produces and markets flat panel televisions, A/V products, washing machines, air conditioners and refrigerators as well as telecommunications equipment such as smart phones and tablets.

Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. sells lumber and wood-related construction materials.  The Company constructs and markets a variety of homes, including custom-built wooden houses, and also manufactures and distributes high-value added wood-based products.  Sumitomo Forestry also maintains a significant amount of Japan's forests.

Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. builds and sells unit residential houses in addition to parcels of land. The Company also manufactures and sells polyvinyl chloride and other plastic products used in, for instance, drainage pipes and bathtubs. Moreover the company is engaged in the production and sale of high performance plastic films, tapes and sheets.

TCL Corporation manufactures electronic products, telecommunication products, home appliances, and electrical products.  The Company's products include televisions, mobile phones, personal computers, air-conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and other related products.

SEB S.A. manufactures small household appliances.  The Company produces cookware, electric cookers, food and beverage preparation equipment, vacuum cleaners, and personal care items. SEB's products are sold globally.

Barratt Developments plc develops and builds properties. The Group's UK Operations include the building of houses and housing complexes, general building and civil engineering services, participation in urban renewal and the development  of commercial properties.

The Berkeley Group Holdings PLC is a residential and commercial property development company focusing on urban regeneration and mixed-use developments. The Company purchases and develops land, in addition to constructing homes, and apartment complexes throughout the South of England, the Midlands, and the North West.

Persimmon plc designs, builds and develops residential housing.  The Company has regional branches in Yorkshire, the North East and North West, Scotland, the Midlands, Anglia, Wessex, Thames Valley, the South East, South Coast, South West and Wales.

Toll Brothers, Inc. builds luxury homes, serving both move-up and empty nester buyers in several regions of the United States.  The Company builds customized single and attached homes, primarily on land that it develops and improves. Toll Brothers also operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, security, landscape, insurance brokerage, and manufacturing operations.

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Toll Brothers (TOL US)

Toll Brothers: Community Count Growth & Land Acquisitions & Other Major Drivers

Toll Brothers, a recognized leader in luxury homebuilding, reported an impressive performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2024,...

Baptista Research

Toll Brothers: Initiation of Coverage - How Their Innovative Community Expansion Is Set to Dominate the Market in 2024! - Major Drivers

This is our first report on Toll Brothers. The company recorded a strong performance for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2023, despite...

Baptista Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/19

The ITB US Home Construction ETF is now up 33% YTD and represents one of the biggest market surprises for me so far in 2023.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports; Buying Consumer Discretionary Stocks

Market dynamics have deteriorated along with the major averages, and many are testing critical supports; as long as supports hold we expect more...

Vermilion Research

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