Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Asian property research and analysis, DimSum Property

Kang Ho Chong

Asian property research and analysis

DimSum Property

Established in Singapore, DimSum Property is a private fund-raising platform with an investment focus across the entire real estate value chain, designed to connect real estate players to investors, built on proprietary and well-researched content, and driven by fin-tech innovations.

Our research articles are written by the DimSum Property Research Team led by co-founder Kang-Ho Chong.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Bid to win, or bid to try your luck...Developers often enter into land bids with different strategies. They may aggressively “bid to win”, especially when their landbank has been depleted. Other times, they may choose to bid low, just to try their luck, hoping that no one else bids above them. Very often, these strategies will lead to different outcomes for their profit margins.<ul><li>Land is the most basic and important ingredient in a development project. In Asia, as land that is zoned for property development becomes more scarce, we see developers competing more and more aggressively for  land parcels, hence driving up land prices.</li><li>Given its relatively transparent and public data-rich land bidding system, we have chosen the Singapore land market as a case study to analyse and understand developers’ behaviours when they bid for land.  </li><li>Our model (between 2007-2016) suggests that since 2016, developers operating in Singapore have been finding it hard to win land parcels, due to greater competition for land. Combined with the pressing need to replenish their depleting landbank, many developers strategized to go all out to win in their land bids.</li><li>These aggressive bids have led to higher land costs and lower profit margins for developers, especially in an environment of falling home prices. We estimate net margins fell to ~15% in 2015, down from 22-36% in 2009-12. We expect them to continue lowering to single digits in 2016-17E.</li><li>Even in the face of a potential margin squeeze, many developers are still jumping in to bid for land, as they seek to fulfil “non-profit driven” strategies such as the need to restock, deploy cash, gain market share, or protect the value of a nearby land which they previously acquired.</li></ul>

Bid to win, or bid to try your luck...Developers often enter into land bids with different strategies. They may aggressively “bid to win”, especially when their landbank has been depleted. Other times, they may choose to bid low, just to try their luck, hoping that no one else bids above them. Very often, these strategies will lead to different outcomes for their profit margins.Land is the most basic and important ingredient in a development project. In Asia, as land that is zoned for property development becomes more scarce, we see developers competing more and more aggressively for  land parcels, hence driving up land prices.Given its relatively transparent and public data-rich land bidding system, we have chosen the Singapore land market as a case study to analyse and understand developers’ behaviours when they bid for land.  Our model (between 2007-2016) suggests that since 2016, developers operating in Singapore have been finding it hard to win land parcels, due to greater competition for land. Combined with the pressing need to replenish their depleting landbank, many developers strategized to go all out to win in their land bids.These aggressive bids have led to higher land costs and lower profit margins for developers, especially in an environment of falling home prices. We estimate net margins fell to ~15% in 2015, down from 22-36% in 2009-12. We expect them to continue lowering to single digits in 2016-17E.Even in the face of a potential margin squeeze, many developers are still jumping in to bid for land, as they seek to fulfil “non-profit driven” strategies such as the need to restock, deploy cash, gain market share, or protect the value of a nearby land which they previously acquired.

Land Market – Bid to Win, or Bid to Try Your Luck?

Japan

TOKYU REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that directly invests in real estate properties such as office and commercial buildings in the Tokyo area.  The Company also invests in securitized real estate products.

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Tokyu Reit Inc (8957 JP)

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term...

Vermilion Research

Land Market – Bid to Win, or Bid to Try Your Luck?

Bid to win, or bid to try your luck...Developers often enter into land bids with different strategies. They may aggressively “bid to win”,...

DimSum Property

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