Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>With increasing pressure to buy back treasury stock to raise ROE, more companies with few tradable shares are expected to promptly retire treasury stock in the future.</li>
<li>Companies that have retired treasury stock three or more times show not only higher stock price valuations, but also superior growth policy scores, cash holding scores, and dividend policy scores.</li>
<li>Rather than simply focusing on the share repurchase, the focus should be on the overall cash allocation that led to it, including investment in growth and shareholder returns.</li>
</ul>


With increasing pressure to buy back treasury stock to raise ROE, more companies with few tradable shares are expected to promptly retire treasury stock in the future.
Companies that have retired treasury stock three or more times show not only higher stock price valuations, but also superior growth policy scores, cash holding scores, and dividend policy scores.
Rather than simply focusing on the share repurchase, the focus should be on the overall cash allocation that led to it, including investment in growth and shareholder returns.


Companies with High Frequency of Share Retirements Tend to Have a High Awareness of Cash Allocation

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zuiko-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5568:1" rel="noopener">Zuiko Corp (6279 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifedrink-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39842:1" rel="noopener">Lifedrink (2585 JP)</a> will have TOPIX Inclusion events at the end of June (Zuiko) or July 2023 (the other two).</li>
<li>One of our pre-event TOPIX Inclusion candidates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> has experienced sharp price moves over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

Zuiko Corp (6279 JP), Anycolor (5032 JP), and Lifedrink (2585 JP) will have TOPIX Inclusion events at the end of June (Zuiko) or July 2023 (the other two).
One of our pre-event TOPIX Inclusion candidates CELSYS (3663 JP) has experienced sharp price moves over the last few weeks.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2023)

<ul>
<li>The most important factor in increasing stock valuations is overseas investors, and a clue can be found in exploring what kind of companies they tend to invest in.</li>
<li>It is a company with high cash holdings and a high growth policy score, i.e., a company that generates ample cash flow. This should be considered a necessary condition.</li>
<li>As foreign ownership increases, shareholder returns such as share buybacks will also be implemented to review cash allocations and improve board practices, so these can be considered byproducts.</li>
</ul>


The most important factor in increasing stock valuations is overseas investors, and a clue can be found in exploring what kind of companies they tend to invest in.
It is a company with high cash holdings and a high growth policy score, i.e., a company that generates ample cash flow. This should be considered a necessary condition.
As foreign ownership increases, shareholder returns such as share buybacks will also be implemented to review cash allocations and improve board practices, so these can be considered byproducts.


Cash Flow Return Is Necessary Condition for Higher Stock Valuations; Shareholder Return Is Byproduct

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>Although listed companies are required to consider the interests of minority shareholders, parent-subsidiary listings should inherently be avoided because it's difficult to reconcile conflicting interests between parent and its subsidiary.</li>
<li>This case questioned whether the FamilyMart directors considered the interests of minority shareholders. The fact that fiduciary duty is scarce in Japan could have been a factor behind this case.</li>
<li>This lack of understanding may also be a factor preventing independent directors from fulfilling their functions, as some CEOs are seen to consider independent directors as advisors rather than managers.</li>
</ul>


Although listed companies are required to consider the interests of minority shareholders, parent-subsidiary listings should inherently be avoided because it's difficult to reconcile conflicting interests between parent and its subsidiary.
This case questioned whether the FamilyMart directors considered the interests of minority shareholders. The fact that fiduciary duty is scarce in Japan could have been a factor behind this case.
This lack of understanding may also be a factor preventing independent directors from fulfilling their functions, as some CEOs are seen to consider independent directors as advisors rather than managers.


When Will Fiduciary Duty Take Root in Japan?

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2023)

There are currently 59 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 72 names can satisfy 5 out of 6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Cash Flow Return Is Necessary Condition for Higher Stock Valuations; Shareholder Return Is Byproduct

I would like to discuss the April 23 Nikkei article, "P/B below 1x: Awakening of the Seriousness Questioned in All-Year Undervalued Stocks." I...

Metrical Inc

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

When Will Fiduciary Duty Take Root in Japan?

I would like to discuss the issues on the April 18 Nikkei Shimbun article, "FamilyMart TOB Price Too Low: Court "Special Committee Fails to Fulfill...

Metrical Inc

Companies with High Frequency of Share Retirements Tend to Have a High Awareness of Cash Allocation

I would like to discuss the issues on the April 24 Nikkei article on Record Number of Treasury Shares Cancellations; TSE Reorganization Boosts 302...

Metrical Inc

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2023)

There are currently 59 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 72 names can satisfy 5 out of 6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Cash Flow Return Is Necessary Condition for Higher Stock Valuations; Shareholder Return Is Byproduct

I would like to discuss the April 23 Nikkei article, "P/B below 1x: Awakening of the Seriousness Questioned in All-Year Undervalued Stocks." I...

Metrical Inc

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

When Will Fiduciary Duty Take Root in Japan?

I would like to discuss the issues on the April 18 Nikkei Shimbun article, "FamilyMart TOB Price Too Low: Court "Special Committee Fails to Fulfill...

Metrical Inc