Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.</li>
<li>We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225</li>
<li>We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities


Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The main Japanese indices have been moving sideways this year</li>
<li>Continued weakness in the JPY has diminished returns in USD terms</li>
<li>Technically the market has similar weak underlying breadth as the US market</li>
</ul>


The main Japanese indices have been moving sideways this year
Continued weakness in the JPY has diminished returns in USD terms
Technically the market has similar weak underlying breadth as the US market


Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)</a> including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.</li>
<li>Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a>, though the changes only start in October 2026. </li>
<li>The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. </li>
</ul>


JPX has commenced a market consultation on changes to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) including expansion of the universe and periodic stock selection.
Based on current market cap/ liquidity, there could be 38 adds and 447 deletions for the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, though the changes only start in October 2026. 
The deletions will be phased out of the index in 8 steps that will end in July 2028 and most of the stocks will move to the TOPIX Next-tier. 


TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "<strong>Who is Ready</strong>" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>There have been no TOPIX Inclusions in 2024 so far although dozens of companies have been able to meet the key Section Transfer requirements on paper for several months.</li>
<li>However, there are some pre-event candidates we believe are worth monitoring as they have previously confirmed their desire to move to the Prime Market.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
There have been no TOPIX Inclusions in 2024 so far although dozens of companies have been able to meet the key Section Transfer requirements on paper for several months.
However, there are some pre-event candidates we believe are worth monitoring as they have previously confirmed their desire to move to the Prime Market.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (June 2024)

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.

Rikki Malik

TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

JPX has commenced a market consultation that could result in 38 adds and 447 deletions for the index in Oct 2026. There are a lot of high impact...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (June 2024)

The Long Basket A - SHORT Basket B trade is yet to deliver strong positive results but the trend is intact and Basket A could outperform Basket B...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

May Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

​Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.

Rikki Malik

TOPIX Market Consultation: Wider Next-Gen Universe in a Couple of Years; But Stocks Moving Already

JPX has commenced a market consultation that could result in 38 adds and 447 deletions for the index in Oct 2026. There are a lot of high impact...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (June 2024)

The Long Basket A - SHORT Basket B trade is yet to deliver strong positive results but the trend is intact and Basket A could outperform Basket B...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

May Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.