Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is a reintroduction to a set of screens and seasonality of risk and return analyses that I run for most markets. Different markets have different seasonalities but Japan has quite clear seasonality from Q4 through about April into early May (the "win ratio" of good months vs bad months) is quite high. From mid-May to the end of October, the average is just around 50% - just below 50% for the last 25yrs, just above 50% for the previous 25yrs for TOPIX. Dividends do not pay for the average…

This is a reintroduction to a set of screens and seasonality of risk and return analyses that I run for most markets. Different markets have different seasonalities but Japan has quite clear seasonality from Q4 through about April into early May (the "win ratio" of good months vs bad months) is quite high. From mid-May to the end of October, the average is just around 50% - just below 50% for the last 25yrs, just above 50% for the previous 25yrs for TOPIX. Dividends do not pay for the average…

Japan Stock Market Seasonality - Early Summer Sprites Turn to Late Summer Ogres

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Equity Bottom-Up

Shinko Electric Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

If you go from the peak of the 1980~82 semiconductor cycle (ie the one that gave us the Commodore 64, the IBM PC [and technically the Apple III]) in July 1981 to now, it is interesting to note that whilst the performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1">Tokyo Electron</a> versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22910" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1">TOPIX</a> has moved up and down with the various cycles, the two have basically performed in line. (In the last month, TEL has garnered a bit of outperformance.) This is of course what you would expect to see at the peak of cycles, assuming that the…

If you go from the peak of the 1980~82 semiconductor cycle (ie the one that gave us the Commodore 64, the IBM PC [and technically the Apple III]) in July 1981 to now, it is interesting to note that whilst the performance of Tokyo Electron versus TOPIX has moved up and down with the various cycles, the two have basically performed in line. (In the last month, TEL has garnered a bit of outperformance.) This is of course what you would expect to see at the peak of cycles, assuming that the…

Japanese Semiconductor-Related Stocks - Leaders & Laggards as We Go Deep Into the IC Cycle

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs –...

Vermilion Research

Japan Stock Market Seasonality - Early Summer Sprites Turn to Late Summer Ogres

This is a reintroduction to a set of screens and seasonality of risk and return analyses that I run for most markets. Different markets have...

Travis Lundy

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs –...

Vermilion Research

Japan Stock Market Seasonality - Early Summer Sprites Turn to Late Summer Ogres

This is a reintroduction to a set of screens and seasonality of risk and return analyses that I run for most markets. Different markets have...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Semiconductor-Related Stocks - Leaders & Laggards as We Go Deep Into the IC Cycle

If you go from the peak of the 1980~82 semiconductor cycle (ie the one that gave us the Commodore 64, the IBM PC [and technically the Apple III])...

Pelham Smithers Associates