Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>Since "profitability of capital" like ROE or ROIC cannot create value in mid-to-long-term without improvement, the fact that ROE has stalled is a cause for concern for future stock prices.</li>
<li>The slow growth in Net Profit Margin and the sluggish improvement in Asset Turnover and Financial Leverage indicate that it is still holding too much cash, cross-held shares, etc. </li>
<li>Nearly half of all listed companies are companies with major shareholders of 20% or more, which is an obstacle to improving corporate governance.</li>
</ul>


Since "profitability of capital" like ROE or ROIC cannot create value in mid-to-long-term without improvement, the fact that ROE has stalled is a cause for concern for future stock prices.
The slow growth in Net Profit Margin and the sluggish improvement in Asset Turnover and Financial Leverage indicate that it is still holding too much cash, cross-held shares, etc. 
Nearly half of all listed companies are companies with major shareholders of 20% or more, which is an obstacle to improving corporate governance.


The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders

<ul>
<li>TSE officially announced that it will request prime market listed companies to simultaneously disclose two documents, financial statements and timely disclosure information, in Japanese and English from April 2025."</li>
<li>Given the characteristics of Japanese companies, which tend to implement only minimum requirements, few companies will engage in English language disclosure in their annual securities reports, which wasn't explicitly stated.</li>
<li>Rather than improving the quality of the market to make it easier for global investors to trade, TSE has set efforts targets to match the speed of the slowest ship.</li>
</ul>


TSE officially announced that it will request prime market listed companies to simultaneously disclose two documents, financial statements and timely disclosure information, in Japanese and English from April 2025."
Given the characteristics of Japanese companies, which tend to implement only minimum requirements, few companies will engage in English language disclosure in their annual securities reports, which wasn't explicitly stated.
Rather than improving the quality of the market to make it easier for global investors to trade, TSE has set efforts targets to match the speed of the slowest ship.


Doesn't Cooperation Rather than Competition Slow the Pace of Improvement in Disclosure in English?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

<ul>
<li>Since 2020, there has been a divergence between P/B and TOPIX movements, complicating matters for listed companies that have been asked to raise their P/Bs.</li>
<li>Expectations are high for a rise in ROE, which has a certain correlation with nominal GDP, which is also increasingly correlated with TOPIX, as deflation exits.</li>
<li>If price pass-through fails, escaping deflation may not lead directly to higher profit margins. If profit margin increase is insufficient, reducing cash on hand is essential to increase ROE.</li>
</ul>


Since 2020, there has been a divergence between P/B and TOPIX movements, complicating matters for listed companies that have been asked to raise their P/Bs.
Expectations are high for a rise in ROE, which has a certain correlation with nominal GDP, which is also increasingly correlated with TOPIX, as deflation exits.
If price pass-through fails, escaping deflation may not lead directly to higher profit margins. If profit margin increase is insufficient, reducing cash on hand is essential to increase ROE.


Isn't It Not Strong Enough to Raise ROE by Higher Profit Margin Due to Escape from Deflation?

<ul>
<li>Net profit per listed company increased 4.4 times over the 33 years from 1989 to 2023, which means only a modest 4.5% annual growth.</li>
<li>The reason why ROE has been sluggish since FY 2005 is due to the slow growth of Net Profit Margin, the decline of Asset Turnover, and the flat financial leverage.</li>
<li>When the escape from deflation becomes a reality, the key is to have products ready to pass on prices, and defense by cash alone is not sufficient for this purpose.</li>
</ul>


Net profit per listed company increased 4.4 times over the 33 years from 1989 to 2023, which means only a modest 4.5% annual growth.
The reason why ROE has been sluggish since FY 2005 is due to the slow growth of Net Profit Margin, the decline of Asset Turnover, and the flat financial leverage.
When the escape from deflation becomes a reality, the key is to have products ready to pass on prices, and defense by cash alone is not sufficient for this purpose.


How Long Will the Escape from Deflation Be a Greater Factor in Stock Price Rises than ROE?

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

The Solution to Better Corporate Governance Is to Reduce the # of Companies with Large Shareholders

I would like to discuss the issues on the March 4 Nikkei article, "Top Analysts' Focus: Expectations for Enhanced Shareholder Returns."

Metrical Inc

Doesn't Cooperation Rather than Competition Slow the Pace of Improvement in Disclosure in English?

I would like to discuss the issues on the February 26 Nikkei article, "TSE Announces Mandatory English Disclosure Starting April 2025.”

Metrical Inc

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

The Kokusai Electric secondary offering price could be determined today. A drop in the SOX Index and the possibility of index inclusion being...

Brian Freitas

Isn't It Not Strong Enough to Raise ROE by Higher Profit Margin Due to Escape from Deflation?

TSE's request to raise the P/B also includes expectations for ROE improvement, and I would like to discuss whether ROE will increase in the future.

Metrical Inc

How Long Will the Escape from Deflation Be a Greater Factor in Stock Price Rises than ROE?

I would like to discuss the issues on the February 22 Nikkei article, "Net Profit of Listed Companies Increases 7 Times in 34 Years; ROE Lags...

Metrical Inc