Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiei-kankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36539:1" rel="noopener">Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP)</a> , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO.
Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.


Daiei Kankyo IPO Trading - Peers Have Been Correcting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiei-kankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36539:1" rel="noopener">Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP)</a> , a waste management company, aims to raise around US$280m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, aims to raise around US$280m in its Japan IPO.
Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.


Daiei Kankyo Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p><em>This insight covers a bit of history, a bit of teaching about how TOPIX works, a bit about the foreseeable events, and a bit of the fundamentals of the company. If you think you know all that, please don't hesitate to jump immediately to the bottom section where there is a Thin Red Line across the screen and a section titled Short &amp; Sweet Version. That is also the conclusions. </em></p>
<hr>
<h3>The Background</h3>
<p>At the end of March 2016, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a>, and as-yet unlisted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26070:1" rel="noopener">SG Holdings (9143 JP)</a>  <a href="https://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2016/03/f_160330a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Hitachi Transport was going to spend ¥66.3bn to buy a 20% stake in the unlisted delivery subsidiary (Sagawa Express) of then still-unlisted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26070:1" rel="noopener">SG Holdings (9143 JP)</a>, forming a capital and business tie-up looking to merge "within three years" (i.e. merger by 1 April 2019). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> was going to sell a 29% stake (out of the 59% they owned) in Hitachi Transport for ¥87.5 billion to SG. They were both going to expand strongly outside of Asia.  HTS was known at the time for its 3PL and "Smart Logistics" capabilities to make customer supply chains more efficient, etc, whereas Sagawa was known as a top last-mile delivery business. The combined entity was set to overtake <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a> in terms of revenue and get closer to industry top dog <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express (9062 JP)</a>. It was supposed to help SG improve margins by doing more in B2B. </p>
</div><div>
<p>SG IPOed in late 2017. Three years came and went. Nothing happened. There were a few collaborative projects but it was slow-going, and there were signs of friction. In May 2019 a Medium Term Management Plan (with no mention of SG or Sagawa) was announced, and the Nikkei carried an interview with HTS President Nakatani who said, when asked about the integration..</p>
<blockquote><p>"I am aware that we are moving toward integration. I would like to harmonize future directions." [Nikkei: He showed a positive attitude...] "We have decided to discuss and consider the possibility of business integration, but we have not made any decisions, including any start to discussions."</p></blockquote>
<p>On September 25 last year, the Diamond Online let fly a scoop saying the capital and business tie-up between the two was going to be scrapped. HTS shares fell 10+%. </p>
<div>
<p>Hitachi Transport's first release to the exchange said the article wasn't based on information they announced and that it was not going to be a dissolution of the capital tie-up, just a re-arranging of the deckchairs and a board meeting was going on and there would be an announcement within the day. HTS shares - at that point down 7% on the day - bounced sharply (they closed down 4%).</p>
<p>The announcement after the close talked about a "partial modification" of the business and capital tie-up, but it involved HTS selling its 20% stake in Sagawa Express, and buying back 27.675mm of the 32.35mm shares of HTS SG held. It was almost a full unwind. SG managed to sell fewer than 27.675mm shares in the ToSTNeT-3 transaction as others also jumped in to sell. </p>
<p>My conclusion was to NOT sell that despite the opportunity to be able to do so in size. My conclusion was bullish HTS and basically bearish SG. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/226/591/original/Screenshot+2021-08-28+at+4.14.40+PM.png?1630138493" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="226591"></figure></section><p>That didn't work so well in the first ten weeks, with the share price ratio falling 20% from 1.252 to 1.00 by 1 December 2020. </p>
<p>When the TSE announced its new listing criteria for TSE Prime, there was going to be trouble. There had to be 35% of shares "tradable" and by that time, the register looked as follows:</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/226/604/original/Screenshot+2021-08-28+at+5.41.44+PM.png?1630143753" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="226604"></figure><p></p></section><p>It did not clear the 35%v threshold (it would have been fine but for the large number of public sellers in the 28 September ToSTNeT-3 transaction.) </p>
<p>By early February 2020, the HTS/SG ratio had reached the ratio of that fateful day announcing the split and by mid-June, the ratio was 26% higher in 9 months. So I am now happier with that call from the past.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/226/603/original/Screenshot+2021-08-28+at+5.35.44+PM.png?1630143372" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="226603"></figure><p></p></section><p>On 20 April 2021, SG Holdings announced they had sold 4.6mm shares (at JPY 3,119.5). And on 20 May (the yellow dot on the blue line in the chart above), HTS <a href="https://www.hitachi-transportsystem.com/en/news/pdf/20210520_Cancellation%20of%20Treasury%20Shares.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it would cancel 6,975,786 shares (6.2% of shs out) in order to put tradable shares back above 35%. In fact, the sale by SG had done that, and the market did not react. But it was a start, and it kept Hitachi Transport in the TSE Prime section and therefore the TOPIX Index when it launches in April 2022 because tradable shares were back above 35%. </p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/226/605/original/Screenshot+2021-08-28+at+5.42.00+PM.png?1630143772" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="226605"></figure><p></p></section></section><p>But there were still a lot of Treasury Shares, which as per the 6 May <a href="https://www.hitachi-transportsystem.com/en/ir/library/presentations/pdf/Presentation%20Material%20of%20financial%20results%20for%20FY2020.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Results Presentation</a>, included the use of stock (and cash) for alliance and M&amp;A. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/226/594/original/Screenshot+2021-08-28+at+4.29.03+PM.png?1630139904" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="226594"></figure></section><p>With the shares rallying, on 19 August, the company <a href="https://www.hitachi-transportsystem.com/en/news/pdf/20210819_Cancellation%20of%20Treasury%20Shares.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that on 3 September, they would cancel 20,699,214 shares out (19.8% of total shares out), leaving treasury shares of 228,308. That would put Hitachi to just under 40% (where there is no question of consolidation if Hitachi Transport doesn't want), it puts SG Holdings to 9.8% (i.e. still below 10%), and puts the public at greater than 50%. </p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/226/606/original/Screenshot+2021-08-28+at+5.42.15+PM.png?1630143788" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="226606"></figure><p></p></section><p>The shares reacted well to that too. </p></section><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>But all this creates a curious problem. </strong></p>
<p>The float is now 50%, vs 41% pre-selldown, and 33.6% post-dealbreak, and the stock will stay in Prime.</p>
<p>But there is selling to come. </p>
</div>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
<p></p>
</div>
</div>


This insight covers a bit of history, a bit of teaching about how TOPIX works, a bit about the foreseeable events, and a bit of the fundamentals of the company. If you think you know all that, please don't hesitate to jump immediately to the bottom section where there is a Thin Red Line across the screen and a section titled Short &amp; Sweet Version. That is also the conclusions. 

The Background
At the end of March 2016, Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP),  Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP), and as-yet unlisted SG Holdings (9143 JP)  announced Hitachi Transport was going to spend ¥66.3bn to buy a 20% stake in the unlisted delivery subsidiary (Sagawa Express) of then still-unlisted SG Holdings (9143 JP), forming a capital and business tie-up looking to merge "within three years" (i.e. merger by 1 April 2019). Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) was going to sell a 29% stake (out of the 59% they owned) in Hitachi Transport for ¥87.5 billion to SG. They were both going to expand strongly outside of Asia.  HTS was known at the time for its 3PL and "Smart Logistics" capabilities to make customer supply chains more efficient, etc, whereas Sagawa was known as a top last-mile delivery business. The combined entity was set to overtake Yamato Holdings (9064 JP) in terms of revenue and get closer to industry top dog Nippon Express (9062 JP). It was supposed to help SG improve margins by doing more in B2B. 

SG IPOed in late 2017. Three years came and went. Nothing happened. There were a few collaborative projects but it was slow-going, and there were signs of friction. In May 2019 a Medium Term Management Plan (with no mention of SG or Sagawa) was announced, and the Nikkei carried an interview with HTS President Nakatani who said, when asked about the integration..
"I am aware that we are moving toward integration. I would like to harmonize future directions." [Nikkei: He showed a positive attitude...] "We have decided to discuss and consider the possibility of business integration, but we have not made any decisions, including any start to discussions."
On September 25 last year, the Diamond Online let fly a scoop saying the capital and business tie-up between the two was going to be scrapped. HTS shares fell 10+%. 

Hitachi Transport's first release to the exchange said the article wasn't based on information they announced and that it was not going to be a dissolution of the capital tie-up, just a re-arranging of the deckchairs and a board meeting was going on and there would be an announcement within the day. HTS shares - at that point down 7% on the day - bounced sharply (they closed down 4%).
The announcement after the close talked about a "partial modification" of the business and capital tie-up, but it involved HTS selling its 20% stake in Sagawa Express, and buying back 27.675mm of the 32.35mm shares of HTS SG held. It was almost a full unwind. SG managed to sell fewer than 27.675mm shares in the ToSTNeT-3 transaction as others also jumped in to sell. 
My conclusion was to NOT sell that despite the opportunity to be able to do so in size. My conclusion was bullish HTS and basically bearish SG. 
That didn't work so well in the first ten weeks, with the share price ratio falling 20% from 1.252 to 1.00 by 1 December 2020. 
When the TSE announced its new listing criteria for TSE Prime, there was going to be trouble. There had to be 35% of shares "tradable" and by that time, the register looked as follows:
It did not clear the 35%v threshold (it would have been fine but for the large number of public sellers in the 28 September ToSTNeT-3 transaction.) 
By early February 2020, the HTS/SG ratio had reached the ratio of that fateful day announcing the split and by mid-June, the ratio was 26% higher in 9 months. So I am now happier with that call from the past.
On 20 April 2021, SG Holdings announced they had sold 4.6mm shares (at JPY 3,119.5). And on 20 May (the yellow dot on the blue line in the chart above), HTS announced it would cancel 6,975,786 shares (6.2% of shs out) in order to put tradable shares back above 35%. In fact, the sale by SG had done that, and the market did not react. But it was a start, and it kept Hitachi Transport in the TSE Prime section and therefore the TOPIX Index when it launches in April 2022 because tradable shares were back above 35%. 
But there were still a lot of Treasury Shares, which as per the 6 May Results Presentation, included the use of stock (and cash) for alliance and M&amp;A. 
With the shares rallying, on 19 August, the company announced that on 3 September, they would cancel 20,699,214 shares out (19.8% of total shares out), leaving treasury shares of 228,308. That would put Hitachi to just under 40% (where there is no question of consolidation if Hitachi Transport doesn't want), it puts SG Holdings to 9.8% (i.e. still below 10%), and puts the public at greater than 50%. 
The shares reacted well to that too. 
But all this creates a curious problem. 
The float is now 50%, vs 41% pre-selldown, and 33.6% post-dealbreak, and the stock will stay in Prime.
But there is selling to come. 

More below the fold. 




Hitachi Transport Uncoupled - TSE Prime, Price Popping, And Supply To Come

Japan

TOKYO GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies liquefied natural gas to Tokyo and the surrounding areas.  The Company maintains and manages gas supply equipment and sells air conditioning appliances.  Tokyo Gas operates power generation business as well.

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Tokyo Gas (9531 JP)

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Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

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Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

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Hitachi Transport Uncoupled - TSE Prime, Price Popping, And Supply To Come

Not quite a year ago, Hitachi Transport consciously uncoupled from SG. A buyback, selldown, squeeze has left HTS with lower float and higher price....

Travis Lundy

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