Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily</li>
<li>Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today</li>
<li>Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries</li>
</ul>


Trump names including banks, energy and tech rally hard, while renewables are sold heavily
Underperformance by semi-capex plays with high China sales may be reflected in Japan SPE today
Global defense rallied on the spectre of higher spend requirements for EU countries


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY</li>
<li>Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY</li>
<li>CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY
Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY
CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.


KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

<ul>
<li>A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba</li>
<li>Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability</li>
<li>Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies</li>
</ul>


A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba
Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability
Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies


Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.</li>
<li>Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.</li>
<li>With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.</li>
</ul>


The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.
Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.
With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.


EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. </li>
<li>Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.</li>
<li>Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. 
Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.
Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422


LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Q324 $4.17 billion, +7.8% QoQ, +19.8% YoY. Q424 guide $4.3 billion, +3.1% QoQ, +14.4% YoY. Despite it being their fifth growth quarter in a row,...

William Keating

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Japan Morning Connection: Trump Names Rally in the Wake of Re-Election

Trump names rally while renewables sold heavily. Underperformance by semi-capex with high China sales may reflect in Japan SPE. Global defense...

Andrew Jackson

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

​Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

​Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Q324 $4.17 billion, +7.8% QoQ, +19.8% YoY. Q424 guide $4.3 billion, +3.1% QoQ, +14.4% YoY. Despite it being their fifth growth quarter in a row,...

William Keating

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...