Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Thanks to strong demand from China, 1Q results at Tokyo Electron (TEL) were just bad, not horrible. Operating profit was down 30% YoY on a 17% decline in sales.</li>
<li>1H guidance implies that 2Q will also be weak. Full-year FY Mar-24 guidance implies an unlikely 50% sequential increase in net profit, putting the shares on 32x projected EPS.</li>
<li>A return to peak EPS next fiscal year would drop the P/E ratio to 21x, which used to be the top of TEL's P/E range. Sell. </li>
</ul>


Thanks to strong demand from China, 1Q results at Tokyo Electron (TEL) were just bad, not horrible. Operating profit was down 30% YoY on a 17% decline in sales.
1H guidance implies that 2Q will also be weak. Full-year FY Mar-24 guidance implies an unlikely 50% sequential increase in net profit, putting the shares on 32x projected EPS.
A return to peak EPS next fiscal year would drop the P/E ratio to 21x, which used to be the top of TEL's P/E range. Sell. 


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Saved from Disaster by China

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!</li>
<li>Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.</li>
<li>The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.</li>
</ul>


Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!
Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.
The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.


Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

<ul>
<li>Hello from Kyoto! If there was a single big story from VLSI this year, it had to be Backside Power Delivery (BSPDN). VLSI is one of the premier conferences for semiconductor design and has been held since the 1980s.</li>
<li>Today it’s one of the best places to present cutting-edge research in circuit technology.</li>
<li>The key revolutionary announcement at VLSI this year was BSPDN. Let’s discuss.</li>
</ul>


Hello from Kyoto! If there was a single big story from VLSI this year, it had to be Backside Power Delivery (BSPDN). VLSI is one of the premier conferences for semiconductor design and has been held since the 1980s.
Today it’s one of the best places to present cutting-edge research in circuit technology.
The key revolutionary announcement at VLSI this year was BSPDN. Let’s discuss.


VLSI Japan : It’s Better on the Backside

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.</li>
<li>The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.</li>
<li>Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.
The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.
Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.


Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. </li>
<li>Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.</li>
<li>If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.</li>
</ul>


This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. 
Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.
If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.


Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Saved from Disaster by China

Operating profit was down 30% YoY in 1Q as strong growth in China failed to offset weakness elsewhere. Over-optimistic full-year guidance leaves...

Scott Foster

Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000...

Fabricated Knowledge

VLSI Japan : It’s Better on the Backside

If there was a single big story from VLSI this year, it had to be BSPDN. Intel announces its PowerVia technology, and scaling the backside is the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

The company sees US$1 trillion of data center upgrades ahead. Our AI Leaders Basket constituents TSMC and ASML are rising as well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nikkei 225 Vs TOPIX Dynamics

Last week, Japan's indices hit new 33yr highs. "Japan is back" seems to be a new narrative, and that is creating new inflows. Some of that has...

Travis Lundy

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