Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Neither "Murakami Fund" group company Office Support KK nor any other Murakami-affiliated company seems to have announced a Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-machine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7943:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Machine (6104 JP)</a> on the 20th as promised. Instead, we jump right to the Tender Offer launch, as <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/BLMainController.jsp?uji.verb=W00Z1020initialize&amp;uji.bean=ek.bean.EKW00Z1020Bean&amp;TID=W00Z1020&amp;PID=W1E63041&amp;SESSIONKEY=1579573756181&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=S100HRXX" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disclosed</a> (Japanese only link) on EDINET this morning, by City Index Elevens KK which is 100% owned by two Murakami group companies.The Tender Offer is for a minimum of 3.5mm shares and a maximum of 7.5mm shares, and if successful at the top end, it will mean Murakami-affiliated companies will own a total of 43.82% of voting rights and 35.28% of shares outstanding (because they own a combined 3.076mm shares as of the launch of the Tender).This Tender Offer price is lower, and for a lower number of shares than I thought. The Tender Offer price of ¥3,456 is symbolic. The document says it is "about one time net assets." It is, in fact, exactly 1.00x book value as of 30 September, which was when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuflare-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9635:1" rel="noopener">Nuflare Technology (6256 JP)</a> was trading at a lower price (the Tender Offer was 55% higher than the end-Sep mark price on their balance sheet). By my calculations, ¥3,456/share is about 0.92-0.95x run-rate book value.This is a deliberately low hurdle set by Murakami-san, and he explicitly says so in the document. It is a gift to Toshiba Machine. He effectively suggests what the right answer is for Toshiba Machine to double ROE. And he invites Toshiba Machine to work hand-in-hand with him to get it done.<div class="content-highlight">I URGE all interested readers and investors in Toshiba Machine to have a good long read of the <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/BLMainController.jsp?uji.verb=W00Z1020initialize&amp;uji.bean=ek.bean.EKW00Z1020Bean&amp;TID=W00Z1020&amp;PID=W1E63041&amp;SESSIONKEY=1579583506955&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=S100HRXX" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tender Offer Document</a> released by the Bidder.</div>More below, including pro-ration estimates and Arb Grids - both Regular Type and Funky Type.

Neither "Murakami Fund" group company Office Support KK nor any other Murakami-affiliated company seems to have announced a Tender Offer for Toshiba Machine (6104 JP) on the 20th as promised. Instead, we jump right to the Tender Offer launch, as disclosed (Japanese only link) on EDINET this morning, by City Index Elevens KK which is 100% owned by two Murakami group companies.The Tender Offer is for a minimum of 3.5mm shares and a maximum of 7.5mm shares, and if successful at the top end, it will mean Murakami-affiliated companies will own a total of 43.82% of voting rights and 35.28% of shares outstanding (because they own a combined 3.076mm shares as of the launch of the Tender).This Tender Offer price is lower, and for a lower number of shares than I thought. The Tender Offer price of ¥3,456 is symbolic. The document says it is "about one time net assets." It is, in fact, exactly 1.00x book value as of 30 September, which was when Nuflare Technology (6256 JP) was trading at a lower price (the Tender Offer was 55% higher than the end-Sep mark price on their balance sheet). By my calculations, ¥3,456/share is about 0.92-0.95x run-rate book value.This is a deliberately low hurdle set by Murakami-san, and he explicitly says so in the document. It is a gift to Toshiba Machine. He effectively suggests what the right answer is for Toshiba Machine to double ROE. And he invites Toshiba Machine to work hand-in-hand with him to get it done.I URGE all interested readers and investors in Toshiba Machine to have a good long read of the Tender Offer Document released by the Bidder.More below, including pro-ration estimates and Arb Grids - both Regular Type and Funky Type.

Murakami Hands Toshiba Machine A Gimme - A TOB Designed To Fail and for Machine To Show Its Value

Japan

TOEI REEFER LINE, LTD. is a shipping firm specializing in frozen tuna imported from Panama as well as shrimp from Southeast Asia.  The Company also operates trading business, real estate leasing, and insurance agents.

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Toei Reefer Line (9133 JP)

Murakami Hands Toshiba Machine A Gimme - A TOB Designed To Fail and for Machine To Show Its Value

Neither "Murakami Fund" group company Office Support KK nor any other Murakami-affiliated company seems to have announced a Tender Offer for...

Travis Lundy

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