Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

A quick heads-up on two recent events in Thai banking sector:<ul><li>
TMB agreed to sell 65% stake of its asset management arm TMBAM to Prudential ( See <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mckinsey-on-asian-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22343">McKinsey on Asian Insurance</a>) for Bt2bn, according to Khao Hoon. The pre-exceptional gains on this deal will be announced later, pending accounting clarifications. TMB will still retain a minority stake, and they feel the move is good because it reduces their conflict of interest as they focus on the Fidelity-style Open Market Architecture, where they…</li></ul>

A quick heads-up on two recent events in Thai banking sector:
TMB agreed to sell 65% stake of its asset management arm TMBAM to Prudential ( See McKinsey on Asian Insurance) for Bt2bn, according to Khao Hoon. The pre-exceptional gains on this deal will be announced later, pending accounting clarifications. TMB will still retain a minority stake, and they feel the move is good because it reduces their conflict of interest as they focus on the Fidelity-style Open Market Architecture, where they…

Sathorn Series I: TMB's PartialDivestment & The Laos Flood Spillover

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the wake of the news about Barclay's potential acquisition of Standard Chartered, we had a chat with a friend who works for the potential target company. In Thailand, this deal itself is probably not a big issue as it is globally or in London. Barclays only has limited investment banking presence here, though Standard Chartered, even after selling off its retail business to TISCO, still has a large corporate loans portfolio, legacy of long years of operations as well as its long-ago…

In the wake of the news about Barclay's potential acquisition of Standard Chartered, we had a chat with a friend who works for the potential target company. In Thailand, this deal itself is probably not a big issue as it is globally or in London. Barclays only has limited investment banking presence here, though Standard Chartered, even after selling off its retail business to TISCO, still has a large corporate loans portfolio, legacy of long years of operations as well as its long-ago…

Sathorn Series E: New Wave of Bank Mergers?

Event-Driven

In this review, we look at the proposed merger between KTB and TMB. In our view, this deal could be valued at US$3.9bn and would create Thailand's new biggest bank, except when it comes to market cap. This implies a 15% premium on TMB. It also reduces competition in the industry and fits into government agendas, not to mention offering a lot of nice synergies and overlaps (that can be cut). In going through this deal, we looked at the banking landscape &amp; history, current situation, synergies and overlaps across their portfolio of businesses. And even though there is always a risk of rejection by TMB's board (they are many skeptics), all we can say is...Let's Do This! Fortune Favors the Bold!

In this review, we look at the proposed merger between KTB and TMB. In our view, this deal could be valued at US$3.9bn and would create Thailand's new biggest bank, except when it comes to market cap. This implies a 15% premium on TMB. It also reduces competition in the industry and fits into government agendas, not to mention offering a lot of nice synergies and overlaps (that can be cut). In going through this deal, we looked at the banking landscape &amp; history, current situation, synergies and overlaps across their portfolio of businesses. And even though there is always a risk of rejection by TMB's board (they are many skeptics), all we can say is...Let's Do This! Fortune Favors the Bold!

Sathorn Series D: KTB + TMB = Thailand's New Banking Godzilla Yo!

Syrian Tensions. The Western allied nations (America, France, and Britain) decided to launch a second attack on Syria on the same basis of the earlier attacks ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/war-in-syria-return-to-inflation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:9874">War in Syria: Return to Inflation?</a>) ie use of chemical warfare against rebels and civilians. The real elephant in the room is Russia, from an economic standpoint, since any trade between Thailand and Syria is a negligible afterthought. With their earlier problems in London following suspected poisoning of defectors, they face the risk of…

Syrian Tensions. The Western allied nations (America, France, and Britain) decided to launch a second attack on Syria on the same basis of the earlier attacks ( War in Syria: Return to Inflation?) ie use of chemical warfare against rebels and civilians. The real elephant in the room is Russia, from an economic standpoint, since any trade between Thailand and Syria is a negligible afterthought. With their earlier problems in London following suspected poisoning of defectors, they face the risk of…

Snippets #8: Syrian Tensions, PTT's New IPO!

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* TMB Bank’s (TMB.TB) run of improving fundamentals have come to an end; * The core niche SME loan segment hasn’t grown for several quarters, and TMB is now reliant on lower yielding      mortgage lending for growth; * The only offset to credit weakness and lower NIMs is TMB’s latest bancassurance deal; and* Readacross to other Thai commercial banks remains negative.  INVESTMENT SUMMARYAfter being the last bank to struggle with legacy Asian Financial Crisis problem assets, seven years of bank…

* TMB Bank’s (TMB.TB) run of improving fundamentals have come to an end; * The core niche SME loan segment hasn’t grown for several quarters, and TMB is now reliant on lower yielding      mortgage lending for growth; * The only offset to credit weakness and lower NIMs is TMB’s latest bancassurance deal; and* Readacross to other Thai commercial banks remains negative.  INVESTMENT SUMMARYAfter being the last bank to struggle with legacy Asian Financial Crisis problem assets, seven years of bank…

Thailand

TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services. The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, and investment banking services to its customers throughout Thailand.  It also has branches in Hong Kong, Laos, and Cayman Island.

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TMBThanachart Bank (TTB TB)

Sathorn Series I: TMB's PartialDivestment & The Laos Flood Spillover

A quick heads-up on two recent events in Thai banking sector: TMB agreed to sell 65% stake of its asset management arm TMBAM to Prudential ( See...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Sathorn Series E: New Wave of Bank Mergers?

In the wake of the news about Barclay's potential acquisition of Standard Chartered, we had a chat with a friend who works for the potential target...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Sathorn Series D: KTB + TMB = Thailand's New Banking Godzilla Yo!

In this review, we look at the proposed merger between KTB and TMB. In our view, this deal could be valued at US$3.9bn and would create Thailand's...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Snippets #8: Syrian Tensions, PTT's New IPO!

Syrian Tensions. The Western allied nations (America, France, and Britain) decided to launch a second attack on Syria on the same basis of the...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

TMB Bank - Going Nowhere…Fast

* TMB Bank’s (TMB.TB) run of improving fundamentals have come to an end; * The core niche SME loan segment hasn’t grown for several quarters, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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