Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $37 price target for Guess?</li><li>and tweaking and further back-end loading our FY25 and FY26 projections after Guess?</li><li>announced 1QFY25 top and bottom line upside, driven by Europe and Domestic wholesale results, as the rag & bone acquisition proved to be a key positive and the company continues to take share in Europe.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $37 price target for Guess?and tweaking and further back-end loading our FY25 and FY26 projections after Guess?announced 1QFY25 top and bottom line upside, driven by Europe and Domestic wholesale results, as the rag & bone acquisition proved to be a key positive and the company continues to take share in Europe.

GES: 1Q Review; Creating a Powerful Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?</li><li>with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close on Thursday.</li><li>We believe 1Q, which included material upgrades in the domestic retail store base, the acquisition of contemporary leader rag & bone, continued European expansion and what we believe were cautious buys from the domestic wholesale segment, will set the stage for a strong back-half and FY26, but will result, beyond further share repurchases, in limited top and bottom line upside for 1Q.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close on Thursday.We believe 1Q, which included material upgrades in the domestic retail store base, the acquisition of contemporary leader rag & bone, continued European expansion and what we believe were cautious buys from the domestic wholesale segment, will set the stage for a strong back-half and FY26, but will result, beyond further share repurchases, in limited top and bottom line upside for 1Q.

GES: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future: Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess?</li><li>stores in the New York City Metro area and Long Island.</li><li>We believe the company continued to drive strong momentum in May, with Mother's Day solid and the company's focus on key fashion items, such as cargo pants, shorts, handbags, watches and active wear a plus.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess?stores in the New York City Metro area and Long Island.We believe the company continued to drive strong momentum in May, with Mother's Day solid and the company's focus on key fashion items, such as cargo pants, shorts, handbags, watches and active wear a plus.

GES: Snapping the Store: Accessories, Shorts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?</li><li>after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long Island.</li><li>Management continues to materially upgrade the Guess?</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long Island.Management continues to materially upgrade the Guess?

GES: Snapping the Store: Moving to a Boutique Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

United States

The TJX Companies, Inc. is an off-price apparel and home fashion retailer in the United States and worldwide.  The Company operates off-price retail concepts in the U.S., Canada and Europe that offer a wide range of brand name and designer merchandise.

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Tjx Companies (TJX US)

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

GES: 1Q Review; Creating a Powerful Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $37 price target for Guess? and tweaking and further back-end loading our FY25 and FY26 projections after...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future: Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess? with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: Snapping the Store: Accessories, Shorts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess? stores in the New York City Metro area and Long...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: Snapping the Store: Moving to a Boutique Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess? after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long...

Small Cap Consumer Research

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